Muslim Students Flow Rates at School Level in India: Cohort 2020-21

An Analysis of UDISEPlus 2020-21 & 2021-22 Data: Promotion, Repetition & Cropout Rates at Primary, Upper Primary, Secondary & Higher Secondary Levels

In order to calculate flow rates, such as promotion, repetition, and dropout rates in the case of Muslim students at the primary, upper primary, secondary, and higher secondary levels of education in India, UDISEPlus grade-wise enrolment in 2020-21 and 2021-22 and repeaters data in 2021-22 has been utilized to compute the average annual dropout and other flow rates for the Cohort 2020-21 analysis of which at the all-India and state level wherever possible is presented in the present note with focus on the Muslim students and the same is compared with all students together.

Table 21: Muslim Flow Rate, All India: Cohort 2020-21

Rate	Primary Level			Upper Primary Level			Secondary Level
	Boys	Girls	Total	Boys	Girls	Total	Boys	Girls	Total
Promotion Rate	95.88	96.38	96.13	93.47	93.26	93.36	80.06	79.85	79.95
Repetition Rate	0.40	0.40	0.40	0.95	1.05	1.00	1.34 1.35	1.46	1.40
Dropout Rate	3.72	3.22	3.48	5.58	5.68	5.63	18.59	18.69	18.64

Source: Computed based on UDISE data, different years.

Table 21 provides information on the average annual promotion, repetition, and dropout rates for Muslim enrolment at different levels of school education in 2021-22 (Cohort 2020-21), along with the corresponding rates for all students (total) at the all-India level (Table 22). Here are the key findings:

Primary Level: The average annual promotion rate for Muslim children at the primary level is relatively high, indicating that a significant proportion of students progress to the next grade each year. However, the dropout rate for Muslim children is higher than that for all students, suggesting that Muslim children are more likely to leave school before completing primary education. The repetition rate remains low, indicating that most Muslim students can pass their grades without repeating.

Upper Primary Level: At the upper primary (middle) level, the promotion rate for Muslim children is relatively high, but again, the dropout rate is higher than the overall rate for all students, which indicates that while many Muslim students progress to higher grades, a significant number still drop out before completing upper primary education. The repetition rate is relatively low, indicating that most Muslim students can advance to the next grade without repeating.

Secondary Level: The promotion rate for Muslim children at the secondary level is relatively high, similar to the overall rate for all students. However, the dropout rate for Muslim children is higher than the overall rate, indicating that more Muslim students leave school at the secondary level. The repetition rate is relatively high at the secondary level, suggesting that some Muslim students may struggle to pass their grades without repeating.

The data presented in Table 21 highlights the need for targeted efforts to improve retention rates and reduce dropout rates for Muslim children at all levels of education, especially at the secondary level. While the promotion rates are relatively high, ensuring that students continue their education and complete higher levels of schooling is crucial to achieving the goal of universalization.

The analysis concerning the dropout rate at different levels of education for Cohort 2020-21 is presented below:

1. Primary Level Dropout Rate: The dropout rate for Muslim children at the primary level is 3.48 percent, meaning that 3.48 percent of those enrolled in Grades I-V dropped out before completing primary education. Among these dropouts, 45.26 percent were Muslim girls, indicating that more girls leave school before completing primary education than boys.
2. Upper Primary Level Dropout Rate: At the upper primary level (Grades VI-VIII), the dropout rate for Muslim children is 5.63 percent. This dropout rate is higher than the primary level, almost similar for boys (5.68 percent) and girls (5.58 percent).

To make a comparison, Table 22 provides efficiency indicators for Total and Muslim enrolment at the all-India level, including dropout, transition, and retention rates at different levels of education and from one level to another, all suggesting that irrespective of education level, Muslim students tend to leave the system without the competition of a Grade or level of educational thus severely effecting efforts currently being made in the country to attain the status of universal school enrolment.

                     Table 22: Efficiency Indicators: Cohort 2020-21 (All India)

Indicator Year 2021-22/Cohort 2020-21	Boys	Girls	Total
Average Annual Dropout Rate
Primary (All Students)	1.6	1.4	1.5
Primary (Muslim Students)	3.72	3.22	3.48
Upper Primary (All Students)	2.7	3.3	3.0
Upper Primary (Muslim Students)	5.58	5.68	5.63
Elementary (Muslim Students)	4.32	4.05	4.19
Secondary (All Students)	13.0	12.3	12.6
Secondary (Muslim Students)	18.59	18.69	18.64
Transition Rate
Primary to Upper Primary (ALL)	93.1	93.4	93.2
Primary to Upper Primary (Muslim Students)	88.61	89.97	89.28
Elementary to Secondary	89.7	87.8	88.8
Elementary to Secondary (Muslim Students)	82.57	81.38	81.97
Secondary to Higher Secondary	77.6	79.3	78.4
Secondary to Higher Secondary (Muslim Students)	69.13	71.66	70.43
Retention Rate
Primary (1 to 5): All Students	94.9	96.0	95.4
Primary (1 to 5): Muslim Students	96.01	92.19	94.02
Elementary (1 to 8) ): All Students	80.5	82.1	81.2
Elementary (1 to 8) ): Muslim Students	80.23	72.78	76.37

Source: Calculated based on UDISE+, different years.

Grade-specific Muslim Flow Rates

 Table 23 presents grade-specific flow rates for Muslim students, including dropout and repetition rates, and compares them with those for all students in the respective grades. However, the table highlights a limitation in the analysis: the dropout rate is negative in a few grades (e.g., Grade I and VI), which is due to the change in enrolment data based on more schools covered under UDISE+ during 2021-22 compared to the previous year, leading to an underestimation of the actual dropout rate.

A comprehensive analysis of the data on Muslim enrolment, repeaters, and flow rates in All-India schools for the Cohort 2020-21 is presented in Table 23. The data covers Grades from I to XII and spans two academic years, 2020-21 and 2021-22. By examining the trends in enrolment, repeaters, and flow rates, this analysis aims to shed light on the educational progress and challenges Muslim students face in the country’s schooling system.

Table 23 reveals that the total enrolment of Muslim students increased steadily from 2020-21 to 2021-22 across all grades. The highest enrolment was observed in Grade II, with 4,029,432 students in 2020-21. Grade XII had the lowest enrolment in both years, with 1,368,049 students in 2020-21 and 1,388,364 students in 2021-22. Further, the data indicate that repetition rates varied across different grades. Grade IX had the highest repetition rate, with 1.52 percent of students repeating the same grade in 2020-21.

On the other hand, Grade II had the lowest repetition rate of 0.26 percent in the same academic year despite the no-detention policy being followed. The flow rates, representing the percentage of Muslim students promoted, were consistently high across all grades in 2020-21. Grade X had the lowest promotion rate of 70.43 percent, while Grade II had the highest promotion rate of 97.35 percent. In the case of dropout rates, Grade X recorded the highest rate of 28.28 percent, highlighting a concerning trend of students leaving the educational system at this stage; thus indicating a need for targeted interventions to retain students until the completion of their secondary education. Further, the higher repetition rates in Grade IX raise questions about the factors contributing to Muslim students repeating the grade at this stage. Understanding these factors and implementing supportive measures could help reduce repetition rates and improve overall learning outcomes.

More about the system’s efficiency is known when the state-specific analysis presented below is undertaken.

Analysis of State-specific Flow Rates

The education system is a crucial component in shaping the future of youth. However, a persistent challenge that hampers the potential of this system is the dropout rate. Dropout rates, especially among certain demographic groups, raise concerns about equitable access to education and can have long-term ramifications on social and economic development. Below, we delve into the state-specific dropout rates among Muslim students at different levels of education in India for the cohort year 2020-21.

 Table 23: Grade-specific Total Muslim Enrolment, Repeaters & Flow Rate: Cohort 2020-21, All-India

Grades	Muslim Enrolment		Number of Muslim			Muslim Flow Rates (Percent)
	2020-21	2021-22	Repeaters	Promotes	Dropouts	Repetition	Promotion	Dropout	Total
I	3701675	3915357	11284	3762443	-72052	0.30	101.64	-1.95	100
II	4029432	3773115	10672	3922578	96182	0.26	97.35	2.39	100
III	3913241	3933488	10910	3778268	124063	0.28	96.55	3.17	100
IV	3755023	3788491	10223	3591486	153314	0.27	95.64	4.08	100
V	3681064	3624057	32571	3286483	362010	0.88	89.28	9.83	100
VI	3185494	3317748	31265	3156747	-2518	0.98	99.10	-0.08	100
VII	3128255	3188274	31527	3088308	8420	1.01	98.72	0.27	100
VIII	3074799	3119703	31395	2520287	523117	1.02	81.97	17.01	100
IX	2554645	2559063	38776	2267477	248392	1.52	88.76	9.72	100
X	2362342	2297770	30293	1663886	668163	1.28	70.43	28.28	100
XI	1448659	1686438	22552	1367587	58520	1.56	94.40	4.04	100
XII	1368049	1388364	20777			1.52

Source: Computed based on UDISE data, different years. Negative dropout rates indicate inconsistent enrolment data.

At the primary level, Table 24 reveals significant variations in dropout rates among Muslim students across different States & UTs. While the national average dropout rate for Muslim boys stands at 3.72 percent, it is noteworthy that some regions report substantially higher dropout rates. For instance, in Andaman & Nicobar Islands, the dropout rate for Muslim boys is 8.65 percent, more than twice the national average. Similar concerns are evident in Andhra Pradesh (12.00 percent), Assam (9.68 percent), and Arunachal Pradesh (10.89 percent).

Gender disparities in dropout rates are evident in the data as well. Across India, the dropout rate for Muslim girls at the primary level is 3.22 percent, marginally lower than that of boys (3.72 percent). However, it is essential to acknowledge that in some regions, this gap widens. For instance, in Andaman & Nicobar Islands, the dropout rate for Muslim girls is 4.59 percent, significantly higher than that of boys (8.65 percent).

	Table 24: Muslim Dropout Rate at Different Levels of Education: Cohort 2020-21
State/UT	Primary Level			Upper Primary Level			Elementary Level
	Boys	Girls	Total	Boys	Girls	Total	Boys	Girls	Total
A & M Islands	8.65	4.59	6.71	0.25	1.63	0.94	5.67	3.48	4.61
Andhra Pradesh	12.00	10.23	11.15	21.64	20.08	20.88	15.35	13.72	14.56
Arunachal Pradesh	10.89	11.15	11.02	15.97	33.19	24.91	12.60	19.35	15.94
Assam	9.68	6.83	8.27	18.10	13.05	15.37	12.29	9.01	10.62
Bihar	-2.10	-1.56	-1.83	6.90	8.24	7.62	0.63	1.75	1.20
Chandigarh	-12.22	-7.24	-9.85	-1.00	-0.53	-0.78	-7.70	-4.55	-6.21
Chhattisgarh	7.23	8.34	7.76	12.34	8.65	10.56	8.98	8.44	8.72
D & N & D & D	0.05	4.87	2.35	3.43	5.38	4.34	1.25	5.05	3.05
Delhi	-8.31	-7.47	-7.89	0.44	-0.04	0.20	-4.85	-4.52	-4.69
Goa	0.82	-0.71	0.08	8.21	11.40	9.75	3.60	3.84	3.72
Gujarat	1.53	1.21	1.37	8.49	10.53	9.47	4.02	4.51	4.25
Haryana	-7.36	-8.39	-7.83	3.16	5.86	4.35	-4.17	-4.29	-4.22
Himachal Pradesh	-2.29	-4.56	-3.35	7.97	7.06	7.53	1.58	-0.01	0.83
Jammu & Kashmir	3.85	4.36	4.09	2.33	2.57	2.45	3.33	3.76	3.54
Jharkhand	3.19	1.62	2.42	8.62	7.65	8.11	4.98	3.79	4.38
Karnataka	-1.37	-1.20	-1.28	1.91	1.47	1.69	-0.19	-0.22	-0.20
Kerala	-2.28	-1.44	-1.87	-1.32	-0.12	-0.73	-1.93	-0.96	-1.45
Ladakh	10.02	9.13	9.58	7.00	3.33	5.11	8.99	7.05	8.01
Lakshadweep	0.41	0.43	0.42	2.86	1.74	2.33	1.20	0.83	1.02
Madhya Pradesh	-3.83	-4.43	-4.12	6.00	3.31	4.65	-0.44	-1.68	-1.05
Maharashtra	1.12	1.85	1.48	4.85	5.46	5.15	2.49	3.18	2.83
Manipur	19.32	22.16	20.73	18.66	17.27	17.97	19.11	20.66	19.88
Meghalaya	18.19	13.38	15.76	11.35	15.12	13.39	16.29	13.91	15.07
Mizoram	50.19	33.48	42.41	52.11	54.49	53.26	50.70	39.34	45.35
Nagaland	12.22	9.12	10.74	12.96	9.52	11.26	12.39	9.22	10.86
Odisha	8.03	6.35	7.22	12.29	9.05	10.68	9.55	7.35	8.48
Puducherry	2.00	-0.66	0.73	0.29	5.94	3.17	1.39	1.88	1.63
Punjab	15.21	15.83	15.50	16.83	15.83	16.37	15.75	15.83	15.79
Rajasthan	7.26	6.70	7.00	10.52	9.83	10.21	8.23	7.60	7.94
Sikkim	4.46	8.25	6.21	10.06	11.19	10.59	6.52	9.36	7.85
Tamilnadu	-0.75	-0.69	-0.72	-1.30	-1.08	-1.19	-0.95	-0.83	-0.90
Telangana	3.27	2.22	2.76	7.80	6.20	7.01	4.95	3.73	4.35
Tripura	4.46	2.66	3.58	8.34	5.92	7.07	5.78	3.87	4.82
Uttar Pradesh	6.83	6.20	6.52	7.36	8.15	7.75	6.98	6.76	6.87
Uttarakhand	6.15	3.93	5.10	12.46	8.46	10.50	7.95	5.30	6.69
West Bengal	6.06	5.44	5.75	-3.86	-1.81	-2.78	2.90	2.92	2.91
All India	3.72	3.22	3.48	5.58	5.68	5.63	4.32	4.05	4.19
Source: Computed based on UDISEPlus 2020-21 & 2021-22 enrolment & repeaters data. Negative dropout rates indicate inconsistent enrolment/repeaters data.

As students progress to the upper primary level, the data indicates an increase in the overall dropout rate. The national average dropout rate for Muslim students at this level is 5.58 percent. States such as Andhra Pradesh (21.64 percent), Assam (18.10 percent), and Arunachal Pradesh (15.97 percent) report notably higher dropout rates, reflecting the challenges faced by Muslim students in continuing their education.

At the elementary level, the dropout rates remain a concern. The data reveals that while the national average dropout rate for Muslim boys is 4.32 percent, some regions demonstrate higher rates, such as Andhra Pradesh (20.88 percent) and Arunachal Pradesh (24.91 percent). Similarly, the national average for Muslim girls is 4.05 percent, but certain States & UTs like Andhra Pradesh (13.72 percent) and Assam (9.01 percent) exhibit disparities.

The data on Muslim dropout rates at different levels of education underscores the need for targeted state-specific interventions and policy measures to ensure inclusive and equitable access to education. Identifying the factors contributing to high dropout rates and designing strategies to address them effectively is crucial. The outcome of such exercise must form part of the plan formulation under the Samagra Shiksha annual plans.

Table 25: Number of States having Muslim Dropout Rate: Cohort 2020-21
Dropout Rate Slab	Primary Level	Upper Primary Level
Less than 0%	9	4
0-2.5	7	5
2.5-5	3	4
5-7.5	7	4
7.5-10	3	6
More than 10%	7	13
Number of States	36	36

The above data sheds light on the intricate educational disparities among States & Union Territories in India, explicitly concerning Muslim student dropout rates at different educational levels. The findings indicate that several regions face considerable challenges in retaining students, particularly at the primary and upper primary levels. Notably, seven states reported dropout rates exceeding ten percent for Muslim students at the primary level. In comparison, thirteen states faced similar issues at the upper primary level (as shown in Table 25). Conversely, nine states demonstrated dropout rates below zero for Muslim students, compared to four at the upper primary level states.

The next section of the analysis will delve into the dropout rates at the Secondary and Higher Secondary levels of education, specifically focusing on Muslim students, and present a state-wise breakdown of the data. This detailed examination will further aid in understanding the educational challenges faced by Muslim students in different regions and help develop tailored strategies to ensure their continued educational progress and success.

Dropout Rate at the Secondary Levels

 Table 26 reveals that compared to lower levels of school education, the dropout rates at the secondary level are notably higher, and this trend is particularly significant among Muslim students. Among states with a high percentage share of Muslims in the total population according to the 2011 Census, the following observations can be made:

• Jammu & Kashmir: Despite its challenging geopolitical situation, Jammu & Kashmir shows relatively low Muslim dropout rates at 5.10 percent, which suggests commendable efforts to ensure educational inclusivity despite the circumstances.

	Table 26: Muslim Flow Rates at Secondary Level: Cohort 2020-21
State/UT	Promotion Rate			Repetition Rate			Drop out Rate
	Boys	Girls	Total	Boys	Girls	Total	Boys	Girls	Total
Andaman & Nicobar Islands	92.58	90.74	91.66	0.00	0.00	0.00	7.42	9.26	8.34
Andhra Pradesh	62.47	64.04	63.23	0.02	0.02	0.02	37.51	35.94	36.75
Arunachal Pradesh	74.53	71.43	72.87	1.89	0.00	0.88	23.58	28.57	26.25
Assam	70.44	68.83	69.52	0.95	0.97	0.96	28.61	30.20	29.52
Bihar	77.61	74.22	75.77	0.07	0.06	0.06	22.31	25.72	24.16
Chandigarh	78.70	82.46	80.46	1.13	0.89	1.01	20.17	16.65	18.53
Chhattisgarh	86.48	88.39	87.46	0.31	0.13	0.22	13.20	11.48	12.32
Dadra & Nagar Haveli	76.29	75.05	75.75	0.33	1.08	0.66	23.37	23.87	23.59
Delhi	84.11	88.02	86.10	3.05	3.01	3.03	12.84	8.97	10.87
Goa	73.01	78.20	75.44	3.32	1.71	2.57	23.66	20.10	21.99
Gujarat	72.13	76.42	74.04	0.00	0.00	0.00	27.87	23.58	25.96
Haryana	82.88	79.85	81.72	1.08	0.63	0.91	16.04	19.52	17.37
Himachal Pradesh	77.56	80.17	78.70	0.04	0.00	0.02	22.39	19.83	21.28
Jammu & Kashmir	95.58	93.56	94.61	0.32	0.25	0.29	4.11	6.18	5.10
Jharkhand	89.32	85.75	87.33	0.27	0.38	0.33	10.42	13.87	12.34
Karnataka	72.33	77.80	75.05	0.81	0.95	0.88	26.87	21.25	24.07
Kerala	86.20	90.08	88.09	0.00	0.00	0.00	13.80	9.92	11.91
Ladakh	93.65	94.62	94.16	0.10	0.22	0.16	6.26	5.16	5.68
Lakshadweep	99.74	101.02	100.36	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.26	-1.02	-0.36
Madhya Pradesh	93.46	96.21	94.87	1.06	0.71	0.88	5.48	3.08	4.25
Maharashtra	79.42	80.02	79.72	0.36	0.32	0.34	20.22	19.66	19.95
Manipur	76.48	71.62	74.09	0.09	0.02	0.06	23.43	28.35	25.86
Meghalaya	74.82	73.13	73.98	1.62	2.35	1.98	23.56	24.52	24.04
Mizoram	75.00	70.37	72.81	1.67	3.70	2.63	23.33	25.93	24.56
Nagaland	72.77	70.57	71.71	3.27	3.49	3.38	23.95	25.94	24.92
Odisha	62.40	66.90	64.69	0.27	0.08	0.17	37.33	33.02	35.14
Puducherry	97.65	95.40	96.49	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.35	4.60	3.51
Punjab	83.63	85.93	84.69	0.36	0.21	0.30	16.01	13.86	15.02
Rajasthan	80.25	80.92	80.54	1.38	1.18	1.29	18.37	17.90	18.16
Sikkim	76.19	103.98	89.59	3.17	2.84	3.01	20.63	-6.82	7.40
Tamilnadu	92.17	94.98	93.55	0.33	0.25	0.29	7.50	4.76	6.16
Telangana	89.51	90.99	90.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	10.49	9.01	9.75
Tripura	84.34	78.96	81.23	2.60	1.65	2.05	13.06	19.39	16.72
Uttar Pradesh	85.57	85.23	85.40	1.08	1.05	1.06	13.36	13.73	13.53
Uttarakhand	82.23	87.27	84.82	0.68	0.58	0.63	17.09	12.15	14.55
West Bengal	70.90	72.05	71.59	5.52	4.79	5.08	23.58	23.16	23.33
All India	80.06	79.85	79.95	1.35	1.46	1.40	18.59	18.69	18.64
Source: Computed based on UDISEPlus 2020-21 & 2021-22 enrolment & repeaters data.

• Assam: Assam faces significant challenges in reducing dropout rates among Muslim students, with a high dropout rate of 29.52 percent. The higher dropout rates for boys (28.61 percent) and girls (30.20 percent) call for targeted interventions to improve educational outcomes and create equal opportunities for all.
• West Bengal: With a high percentage of the Muslim population, West Bengal displays moderate Muslim dropout rates at 23.33 percent, but they still exceed the national average of 18.64 percent. The state needs focused efforts to enhance retention rates and provide equitable access to education.
• Kerala: Kerala stands out as an educationally advanced state, boasting lower Muslim dropout rates at 11.91 percent, which indicates the state’s successful model of educational inclusivity and social development.
• Uttar Pradesh: The most populous state in India, Uttar Pradesh experiences moderate Muslim dropout rates at 13.53 percent, emphasizing the need for interventions to enhance educational retention and socio-economic development.
• Bihar: Bihar faces significant dropout rates among Muslim students, with a rate of 24.16 percent, which calls for targeted measures to address socio-economic factors and improve educational accessibility.
• Telangana: Telangana exhibits relatively lower dropout rates among Muslim students, with a rate of 9.75 percent, showcasing the state’s efforts to provide inclusive and quality education.
• Jharkhand: As an educationally developing state, Jharkhand reports lower Muslim dropout rates at 12.34 percent. However, targeted initiatives are still required to enhance educational inclusivity and retention.

The analysis of Muslim dropout rates presented above at the secondary level in states with higher Muslim population shares reveals a mix of performance across different regions. Due to the high dropout rate at this level, achieving school education for all by 2030 in India will undoubtedly be challenging. Additionally, attaining a 50 percent GER by 2035, as envisioned in NEP 2020, will not be a simple task. Policymakers and educators must collaboratively work to implement targeted interventions that promote educational inclusivity, improve retention rates, and ensure equal opportunities for all students, including Muslims. Continuous monitoring and analysis of educational indicators will aid in developing effective strategies for improving educational outcomes and social development across states.

Muslim Gross Enrolment Ratio at School Education in India (2021-22)

State-wise Muslim Gross Enrolment Ratio at School Education in India (2021-22)

Muslims Gross Enrolment Ratio at Higher Education Level (2020-21)

Muslim Gender Parity Index at Higher Education Level in India, 2016-17 to 2020-21

Average Annual Growth Rate: Muslim Enrolment in Higher Education

Share of Muslim Enrolment in Higher Education in India: 2016-17 to 2020-21

Share of Girls in Muslim Enrolment at School Level & Gender Parity Inde (GPI)

Number of Muslim Children Dropped-out between 2020-21 & 2021-22 in India

Muslim Students Transition Rate in India: Cohort 2018-19 to 2020-21

Muslim Students Retention Rate at Primary, Elementary & Secondary Levels, Cohort 2020-21

Share of Girls in Muslim Enrolment at School Level & Gender Parity Inde (GPI)

Share of Muslim Enrolment in India by Gender to Total Enrolment (2012-13 to 2021-22)

Education for All in India