Projected Child Population based on Technical Group 2021-22
Report of the Technical Group On Population Proiecttons entitled Population Projections for India and States: 2011–2036, released in July 2020, by the National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, New Delhi
An attempt has been made in the present article to explore and work out all possible indicators in the case of each of the four restructured phases. One set of such indicators falls under the enrolment ratio, which needs an age-specific child population as per the specification of a phase. It may be observed that the last Census was conducted in the year 2011, and since the 2021 Census is delayed because of COVID-19, there is no option but to use the projected child population in a year in which an indicator is required to be worked out.
Both for the Country as a whole and state-wise, the Report of the Technical Group On Population Proiecttons entitled Population Projections for India and States: 2011–2036, released in July 2020, by the National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, New Delhi is available which is based up to the 2011 Census and presents projected population on the quinquennial basis, i.e., 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036. The total male and female population, as well as the population in different age groups and the single-age population, is available through the report of the Technical Group, which is good enough to compute the enrolment ratio as the child population made available by the Technical Group is available in the ready to use form.
Since the present paper is written, the state and district level officers engaged in the annual work plan and budget under the aegis of Samagra Shiksha in mind, the use of the projections made available by the Technical Group is demonstrated by taking the example of the actual data of India, which the user can replicate at the state and district level and compute enrolment ratios, subject to availability of data by different phases of restructured school level, such as the foundational stage, the preparatory phase, the middle stage, and the combined secondary level corresponding to the age structure.
Since the UDISE+ is the latest available for the year 2021-22, phase-wise enrolment ratios need the corresponding child population in the year 2021, which is available in the ready-to-use form from the report of the Technical Group as specified above. Below, we present the projected single-age population at the all-India level, which the state and district officers can use at their level as per the requirement. A separate article is soon being prepared to demonstrate the projection of the district-wise child population.
In the past, it was observed that in the absence of a projected child population, either the enrolment ratios at the sub-national level were not computed or the same were based on an unrealistic projected child population because of which most of the time the indicators computed were of little use.
Table 1: Single-age Projected Population, All-India, 2021
Source: Population Projections for India and States: 2011-2036, Report of the Technical Group on Population Protections, National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, New Delhi, July 2020.
Based on the single-age population presented in the table, next, we obtain the child population corresponding to different phases of a school structure presented in Table 4. The table reveals that from the projected technical group’s projections, it is not possible to obtain a child population in the age group 3 to 5 years in any year because it has provided a single-age population only from age five onwards and no single-age population of age 3 and 4 is made available. The moot question is, therefore, how to obtain a child population in the age group 3 to 5 years in the absence of which neither the GER nor NER is possible to compute for the fundamental stage of education? What is the alternative? Let us explore.
We are re-emphasizing the importance of projections of the child population which, as mentioned above, is crucial to construct enrolment-based indicators in each of the four newly restructured phases. We want to ensure that each state uses technical group projections hassle-free.
It is proposed to use the actual single-age Population of Census 2011 to obtain the percentage of 3 to 5 years to total 0 to 14 years population, which is then applied to 2021 Technical Group projections to obtain a total 3 to 5 population in 2021 and the subsequent years.
Table 2: Census of India 2011 (Actual) Single-age Population, All-India
|All Ages (Total)||Persons||Males||Females|
|Total 0 to 14 Years||372444116||194351375||178092741|
|Total 3 to 5 years||73738309||38389935||35348374|
|%age 3 to 5 years to 0 to 14 years Population||19.80||19.75||19.85|
|Projected 0 to 14 Population, 2021||3,49,990000||183695000||166295000|
|Projected 3 to 5 Population, 2021||69298020||36279763||33009558|
Source: Calculated on the basis of Census of India 2011 figures.
Table 3: Population Projections: All India, 2021
|0 to 4||114273||60153||54120|
|5 to 9||117666||62276||55390|
|10 to 14||118051||61266||56785|
|0 to 14||349990||183695||166295|
|3 to 5 % of 0 to 14, 2011||19.80||19.75||19.85|
|3 to 5 Pp, 2021||69293||36285||33007|
Source: Estimated based on 2011 single-age population.
Table 4: Child Population Corresponding to Different Phases of School Education
All India: 2021
|Phase||Grades||Corresponding Age Groups
|Projected Population, 2021 (In thousand)|
|Foundational Stage||ECCE||3 to 5||69293||36285||33007|
|Grades I to II||6 to 7||47,099||25,001||22,098|
|ECCE+ Grades I & II||3 to 7||116392||61286||55105|
|Preparatory Phase||Grades III to V||8 to 10||70,743||37,200||33,544|
|Middle Phase||Grades VI to VIII||11 to 13||70,550||36,539||34,012|
|Secondary Phase||Grades IX to XII||14 to 17||98,072||51,075||46,997|
|Total I to XII||Grades I to XII||6 to 17||2,86,464||1,49,815||1,36,651|
Source: Estimated based on Population Projections for India and States: 2011-2036, Report of the Technical Group on Population Protections, National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, New Delhi, July 2020.
Table 5: Net Enrolment: 2021-22
|Grades I to II||15373576||16758626||32132202|
|Grades 3 to 5||27300944||29525008||56825952|
|Grades VI to VIII||24371948||25942956||50314904|
|Grades IX to XII||25108299||26978744||52087043|
|Grades I to XII||92154767||99205334||191360101|
* ECCE Total Enrolment, age-specific ECCE enrolment is not available.
|Table 6: Adjusted Enrolment (One Phase Above), 2021-22|
|Foundational Phase I: Grades 1 & 2 (6 to 7 Years)||21872976||23722665||45595641|
|Preparatory Phase: Grades 3 to 5 (8 to 10 Years)||33273996||35894286||69168282|
|Middle Stage: Grades 6 to 8 (11 to 13 Years)||29773136||31785106||61558242|
Source: UDISE+ 2021-22 enrolment.
Computing Uncomputed Indicators in Response to NEP 2020 [Full Length PDF]