Annexure

Projected Child Population based on Technical Group 2021-22

Report of the Technical Group On Population Proiecttons entitled Population Projections for India and States: 2011–2036, released in July 2020, by the National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, New Delhi

An attempt has been made in the present article to explore and work out all possible indicators in the case of each of the four restructured phases. One set of such indicators falls under the enrolment ratio, which needs an age-specific child population as per the specification of a phase. It may be observed that the last Census was conducted in the year 2011, and since the 2021 Census is delayed because of COVID-19, there is no option but to use the projected child population in a year in which an indicator is required to be worked out.

Both for the Country as a whole and state-wise, the Report of the Technical Group On Population Proiecttons entitled Population Projections for India and States: 2011–2036, released in July 2020, by the National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, New Delhi is available which is based up to the 2011 Census and presents projected population on the quinquennial basis, i.e., 2016, 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036. The total male and female population, as well as the population in different age groups and the single-age population, is available through the report of the Technical Group, which is good enough to compute the enrolment ratio as the child population made available by the Technical Group is available in the ready to use form.

Since the present paper is written, the state and district level officers engaged in the annual work plan and budget under the aegis of Samagra Shiksha in mind, the use of the projections made available by the Technical Group is demonstrated by taking the example of the actual data of India, which the user can replicate at the state and district level and compute enrolment ratios, subject to availability of data by different phases of restructured school level, such as the foundational stage, the preparatory phase, the middle stage, and the combined secondary level corresponding to the age structure.

Since the UDISE+ is the latest available for the year 2021-22, phase-wise enrolment ratios need the corresponding child population in the year 2021, which is available in the ready-to-use form from the report of the Technical Group as specified above. Below, we present the projected single-age population at the all-India level, which the state and district officers can use at their level as per the requirement. A separate article is soon being prepared to demonstrate the projection of the district-wise child population.

In the past, it was observed that in the absence of a projected child population, either the enrolment ratios at the sub-national level were not computed or the same were based on an unrealistic projected child population because of which most of the time the indicators computed were of little use.

Table 1: Single-age Projected Population, All-India, 2021

Age  

2021

  

2026

  

2031

 2036
Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female
5 23,310 12,335 10,974 22,289 11,718 10,570 21,144 11,064 10,081 19,954 10,413 9,541
6 23,494 12,471 11,023 22,476 11,831 10,644 21,363 11,191 10,172 20,141 10,509 9,632
7 23,605 12,530 11,075 22,652 11,937 10,715 21,576 11,315 10,261 20,348 10,621 9,727
8 23,645 12,515 11,130 22,819 12,036 10,783 21,781 11,434 10,347 20,576 10,749 9,827
9 23,612 12,425 11,188 22,976 12,128 10,848 21,980 11,549 10,431 20,824 10,893 9,931
10 23,486 12,260 11,226 23,194 12,275 10,918 22,197 11,673 10,523 21,085 11,043 10,043
11 23,408 12,146 11,262 23,418 12,427 10,990 22,418 11,800 10,617 21,334 11,182 10,151
12 23,470 12,143 11,327 23,551 12,496 11,055 22,612 11,914 10,699 21,561 11,312 10,249
13 23,672 12,250 11,423 23,593 12,483 11,111 22,781 12,013 10,767 21,768 11,432 10,336
14 24,015 12,467 11,548 23,545 12,386 11,158 22,922 12,099 10,823 21,954 11,543 10,412
15 24,410 12,712 11,698 23,406 12,219 11,187 23,127 12,242 10,885 22,160 11,664 10,497
16 24,712 12,883 11,829 23,328 12,106 11,222 23,349 12,394 10,956 22,380 11,791 10,589
17 24,935 13,013 11,922 23,385 12,101 11,284 23,477 12,460 11,017 22,570 11,903 10,668
18 25,079 13,103 11,977 23,577 12,202 11,375 23,511 12,442 11,069 22,730 11,998 10,733
19 25,146 13,152 11,994 23,904 12,410 11,494 23,451 12,339 11,112 22,861 12,076 10,784
20 25,377 13,293 12,084 24,282 12,646 11,637 23,301 12,166 11,135 23,053 12,212 10,841
21 25,660 13,461 12,199 24,570 12,810 11,761 23,213 12,049 11,164 23,265 12,358 10,907
22 25,696 13,492 12,205 24,782 12,933 11,849 23,261 12,038 11,223 23,384 12,419 10,965
23 25,485 13,384 12,100 24,918 13,016 11,901 23,444 12,133 11,311 23,411 12,395 11,015
Total 4,62,217 2,42,034 2,20,182 4,46,664 2,34,162 2,12,502 4,30,910 2,26,317 2,04,593 4,15,359 2,18,513 1,96,846

Source: Population Projections for India and States: 2011-2036, Report of the Technical Group on Population Protections, National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, New Delhi, July 2020.

Based on the single-age population presented in the table, next, we obtain the child population corresponding to different phases of a school structure presented in Table 4. The table reveals that from the projected technical group’s projections, it is not possible to obtain a child population in the age group 3 to 5 years in any year because it has provided a single-age population only from age five onwards and no single-age population of age 3 and 4 is made available. The moot question is, therefore, how to obtain a child population in the age group 3 to 5 years in the absence of which neither the GER nor NER is possible to compute for the fundamental stage of education? What is the alternative? Let us explore.

We are re-emphasizing the importance of projections of the child population which, as mentioned above, is crucial to construct enrolment-based indicators in each of the four newly restructured phases. We want to ensure that each state uses technical group projections hassle-free.

It is proposed to use the actual single-age Population of Census 2011 to obtain the percentage of 3 to 5 years to total 0 to 14 years population, which is then applied to 2021 Technical Group projections to obtain a total 3 to 5 population in 2021 and the subsequent years.

                                             Table 2: Census of India 2011 (Actual) Single-age Population,  All-India

All Ages (Total) Persons Males Females
1210854977 623270258 587584719
0 20311234 10633298 9677936
1 21755197 11381468 10373729
2 23056268 11952853 11103415
3 23974041 12331431 11642610
4 23710038 12333024 11377014
5 26054230 13725480 12328750
6 25654245 13394700 12259545
7 24826640 12903364 11923276
8 26968373 14061937 12906436
9 23424638 12214985 11209653
10 30552107 16089436 14462671
11 24740946 12962604 11778342
12 27877307 14637892 13239415
13 24280683 12563775 11716908
14 25258169 13165128 12093041
15 25899454 13739746 12159708
16 24592293 13027935 11564358
17 21217467 11349449 9868018
18 27958147 15020851 12937296
19 20859088 10844415 10014673
20 28882735 14892165 13990570
Total 0 to 14 Years 372444116 194351375 178092741
Total 3 to 5 years 73738309 38389935 35348374
%age 3 to 5 years to 0 to 14 years Population 19.80 19.75 19.85
Projected 0 to 14 Population, 2021 3,49,990000 183695000 166295000
Projected 3 to 5 Population, 2021 69298020 36279763 33009558

                                           Source: Calculated on the basis of Census of India 2011 figures.

                    Table 3: Population Projections: All India, 2021

(In thousands)

Age Group Persons Male Female
0 to 4 114273 60153 54120
5 to 9 117666 62276 55390
10 to 14 118051 61266 56785
0 to 14 349990 183695 166295
3 to 5 % of 0 to 14, 2011 19.80 19.75 19.85
3 to 5 Pp, 2021 69293 36285 33007
in ‘000 69292733 36284997 33006723

Source: Estimated based on 2011 single-age population.

 Table 4: Child Population Corresponding to Different Phases of School Education

All India: 2021

Phase Grades Corresponding Age Groups

(In Years)

 Projected Population, 2021 (In thousand)
Total Male Females
Foundational Stage ECCE 3 to 5 69293 36285 33007
Grades I to II 6 to 7 47,099 25,001 22,098
ECCE+ Grades I & II 3 to 7 116392 61286 55105
Preparatory Phase Grades III to V 8 to 10 70,743 37,200 33,544
Middle Phase Grades VI to VIII 11 to 13 70,550 36,539 34,012
Secondary Phase Grades IX to XII 14 to 17 98,072 51,075 46,997
Total I to XII Grades I to XII 6 to 17 2,86,464 1,49,815 1,36,651

Source: Estimated based on Population Projections for India and States: 2011-2036, Report of the Technical Group on Population Protections, National Commission on Population, Ministry of Health & Family Welfare, New Delhi, July 2020.  

                                                      Table 5: Net Enrolment: 2021-22

Phase Girls Boys Total
ECCE* 4443684 5051523 9495207
Grades I to II 15373576 16758626 32132202
Total Foundational 19817260 21810149 41627409
Grades 3 to 5 27300944 29525008 56825952
Grades VI to VIII 24371948 25942956 50314904
Grades IX to XII 25108299 26978744 52087043
Grades I to XII 92154767 99205334 191360101
With Pre-primary 96598451 104256857 200855308

                                         * ECCE Total Enrolment, age-specific ECCE enrolment is not available.

Table 6: Adjusted Enrolment (One Phase Above), 2021-22
Phase Girls Boys Total
Foundational Phase I: Grades 1 & 2 (6 to 7 Years) 21872976 23722665 45595641
Preparatory Phase: Grades 3 to 5 (8 to 10 Years) 33273996 35894286 69168282
Middle Stage: Grades 6 to 8 (11 to 13 Years) 29773136 31785106 61558242

Source: UDISE+ 2021-22 enrolment.

Computing Uncomputed Indicators in Response to NEP 2020 [Full Length PDF]