Importance of Child Population to Compute Educational Indicators (2023)

In this brief note, we discuss the usefulness and importance of the child population in different age groups in computing enrolment-based indicators, which is considered necessary because of the absence of a projected population in a given year for which indicators are to be computed. The single-age population through which the school-age child population is estimated is the latest available through the 2011 Census. However, the same is required in a year based on which enrolment indicators are required.

The projected child population in India can be obtained from various official sources specializing in demographic data and projections. Some of the commonly used sources for the projected child population in India are described below:

Census of India: The Census of India is conducted every ten years and provides detailed demographic information, including population projections. The Registrar General & Census Commissioner of India is the official authority responsible for conducting the census once a decade.

NFHS: National Family Health Survey is a large-scale survey being conducted by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. It provides comprehensive data on various aspects of population, health, and nutrition, including projections of child population.

Sample Registration System (SRS): The SRS is an ongoing demographic survey conducted by the Registrar General of India. It provides data on birth rates, death rates, and other demographic indicators, which can be used to estimate child population projections.

United Nations Population Division (UNPD): The UNPD publishes population projections for countries worldwide, including India. Their projections are based on various demographic factors and can be valuable for estimating child population trends.

Research Institutes and Think Tanks: Several research institutes and think tanks in India, such as the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), Population Research Centres, and other academic institutions, research population dynamics and may provide projections of the child population as part of their studies.

It is important to note that population projections are uncertain and can vary depending on the methodology and assumptions. Therefore, referring to official government sources or reputable research institutions for the most reliable and up-to-date projections is advisable. Expert Group on Population Projection (2020), set up by the Ministry of Health & Social Welfare, is an official projection based on the 2011 Census, also used in computing indicators in official publications. However, even though this does not provide district-specific projections, the state-specific projections can be used in working out district-specific projections in a state.

Census of India Historical Perspective 2023

Before we view the present size of the child population in 2021-22, briefly below, we discuss the enrolment-based indicators, such as Gross & Net Enrolment Ratios, Adjusted-Net Enrolment Ratios, and Age-specific Enrolment Ratios.

Enrolment Ratios

Enrolment ratios are important indicators used to measure participation and access to education at different levels. These enrolment ratios are crucial for assessing the progress and equity in educational access and participation. They help identify gaps and disparities, monitor educational policies, and guide interventions to ensure inclusive and equitable education.

A brief description & differentiation of the commonly used enrolment ratios are presented below:

  1. Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER): The Gross Enrolment Ratio represents the total enrolment in a specific level of education (such as primary, secondary, or higher education) as a percentage of the total population in the corresponding age group. It includes the enrolled students in a specific level of education and those who may be older or younger but are studying at that level.
  2. Net Enrolment Ratio (NER): The Net Enrolment Ratio is a more refined indicator measuring the actual education participation rate. It represents the number of official school-age children enrolled in a particular level of education as a percentage of the total population in that age group. NER excludes those who are over-age or under-age for that level of education.
  3. Gross Enrolment Ratio for a Specific Age Group: This enrolment ratio focuses on the enrolment of children within the official age range for a specific level of education. It measures the percentage of children in the relevant age group who are enrolled at that level.
  4. Gender Parity Index (GPI): The Gender Parity Index compares the enrolment of girls to boys in a particular level of education. It is calculated by dividing the enrolment ratio of girls by the enrolment ratio of boys. A GPI value of 1 indicates gender parity, while a value below 1 indicates a gender imbalance in enrolment.

GER considers all enrolled students, regardless of their age, providing an overall picture of enrolment in a specific level of education. On the other hand, NER focuses on children’s participation within the official age range, excluding over-age and under-age students. Enrolment ratios for a specific age group concentrate on the enrolment of children within the designated age bracket. Whereas the GPI specifically examines the gender distribution in enrolment, highlighting gender disparities or parity in education.

Projected Child Population: 2021-22, All India & State-specific

India/ State/ UT Projected Population by Age Group – Overall
Age 3-5 Age 6-10 Age 11-13
Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total
India 44272333 39688667 83962000 62201000 55642000 117842000 36539000 34012000 70550000
Andaman and Nicobar Islands 13170 12346 25516 20050 18259 38309 12840 11955 24795
Andhra Pradesh 1328667 1219667 2548333 1910000 1754000 3665000 1133000 1089000 2222000
Arunachal Pradesh 43650 41051 84700 65167 61810 126977 50241 49413 99655
Assam 1146667 1051333 2198000 1586000 1461000 3047000 1015000 991000 2007000
Bihar 5211667 4682000 9894333 7252000 6583000 13837000 4286000 4152000 8437000
Chandigarh 41702 35354 77056 62583 49829 112412 38693 29724 68418
Chhattisgarh 1041000 983000 2023000 1430000 1357000 2788000 799000 774000 1572000
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Delhi 571667 487000 1058667 826000 688000 1513000 494000 423000 916000
Goa 47524 43582 91106 68889 61867 130756 43065 38755 81820
Gujarat 2298667 1958667 4257000 3144000 2643000 5786000 1802000 1590000 3392000
Haryana 969333 818333 1788333 1362000 1120000 2481000 793000 659000 1452000
Himachal Pradesh 180333 164000 344333 267000 240000 509000 177000 158000 334000
Jammu and Kashmir 317667 297333 614000 517000 472000 988000 475000 405000 881000
Jharkhand 1389667 1272000 2662667 1907000 1748000 3656000 1205000 1174000 2378000
Karnataka 1802333 1656000 3458333 2631000 2419000 5048000 1550000 1480000 3030000
Kerala 872333 836667 1709000 1245000 1191000 2436000 771000 740000 1512000
Ladakh 11125 10411 21536 15125 13656 28781 9793 8609 18402
Lakshadweep 2348 2192 4540 3510 3267 6777 2101 2329 4430
Madhya Pradesh 3221333 2960667 6182667 4420000 4052000 8471000 2360000 2231000 4593000
Maharashtra 3319333 2899667 6219000 4797000 4154000 8952000 3079000 2754000 5832000
Manipur 76738 69678 146416 112691 103466 216157 90561 85241 175802
Meghalaya 111590 105437 217028 145200 137363 282563 109065 105908 214973
Mizoram 32267 30456 62723 44266 41736 86002 33661 32023 65684
Nagaland 60334 55220 115554 91239 83048 174287 73023 66888 139912
Odisha 1308000 1232000 2540000 1850000 1743000 3593000 1166000 1104000 2270000
Puducherry 41924 39878 81802 64855 59265 124121 40579 37624 78203
Punjab 768000 675667 1443667 1120000 967000 2087000 702000 586000 1288000
Rajasthan 3020000 2632333 5652333 4203000 3654000 7857000 2344000 2144000 4488000
Sikkim 13348 12291 25640 22143 21066 43209 19334 18586 37919
Tamil Nadu 1838667 1681000 3519667 2726000 2484000 5210000 1626000 1543000 3169000
Telangana 1005667 908667 1914333 1423000 1280000 2704000 869000 822000 1692000
Tripura 96083 89857 185940 128282 119535 247816 104132 98940 203073
Uttar Pradesh 9274333 8135333 17410000 12668000 11070000 23738000 6648000 6092000 12740000
Uttarakhand 342667 291333 634000 480000 402000 881000 310000 273000 583000
West Bengal 2425667 2274333 4700000 3557000 3355000 6911000 2287000 2224000 4511000

Reference: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Report of the Expert Group on Population Projection, June 2020

The Usefulness of Clientele Child Population

Computation of educational indicators requires the child population, which refers to the number of children within a specific age range eligible for education. The child population is the denominator in calculating various educational indicators to assess access, participation, and quality of education. Below, we present a few  key points concerning to child population in computing educational indicators:

  1. Age Range: The child population for educational indicators is typically defined based on the age range considered for compulsory or primary education, which varies across countries but is commonly focused on children between the ages of 5 and 17.
  2. Census Data: National census data and demographic surveys are reliable sources to estimate the child population. These sources provide information on the number of children within the specified age range in a given geographic area, such as a country, state, or district.
  3. Age-Specific Enrolment: The child population calculates enrolment rates, which indicate the proportion of children of a specific age group who are enrolled in school. By comparing the number of enrolled children to the total child population, enrolment rates can be determined for different levels of education.
  4. Gender Disaggregation: The child population is disaggregated by gender to analyse gender disparities in education as this helps identify differences in enrolment and access to education between boys and girls, allowing policymakers to address gender inequalities and promote gender equity in education.
  5. Out-of-School Children: The child population is crucial for estimating the number of out-of-school children. The population of children not attending school can be determined by subtracting the number of enrolled children from the total child population. This information helps identify the magnitude of the out-of-school children problem and develop targeted interventions.
  6. Planning & Resource Allocation: The child population is a basis for educational planning and resource allocation. It helps policymakers estimate the infrastructure, teaching staff, and resources needed to accommodate the expected number of children in the education system.
  7. Time Trend Analysis: By tracking changes in the child population over time, educational indicators can be monitored and analysed to assess progress or identify challenges in expanding access to education, improving enrolment rates, and addressing educational gaps.

Considering the child population is essential for computing educational indicators accurately, as it provides a meaningful context for understanding the educational landscape and formulating evidence-based policies and interventions. It enables policymakers, researchers, and education stakeholders to measure and track progress in achieving educational goals and ensure that educational resources and opportunities are effectively allocated to meet the needs of the child population.

Several indicators in the field of school education require the consideration of the child population. These indicators help assess various aspects of access, participation, and quality of education. Below placed indicators are some of the critical indicators that are heavily based  on child population:

  1. Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER): It measures the total enrolment in a specific level of education (such as primary, secondary, or tertiary) as a percentage of the child population in the corresponding age group.
  2. Net Enrolment Ratio (NER): It calculates the proportion of children of official school age who are enrolled in a specific level of education, taking into account the age-specific population.
  3. Out-of-School Children: This indicator estimates the number and percentage of children within the official school age who are not enrolled in any formal education system.
  4. Gender Parity Index (GPI): It compares girls’ enrolment rates to boys, highlighting gender disparities in education. GPI values below 1 indicate gender gaps in favour of boys, while values above 1 indicate gender gaps in favour of girls.
  5. Completion Rate: It measures the percentage of children who complete a particular level of education within the expected duration, providing insights into educational attainment.
  6. Transition Rate: It assesses the flow of students from one level of education to the next, indicating the progression and continuity in the educational system.
  7. School Attendance Rate: It represents the percentage of enrolled children attending school regularly, indicating their active participation in learning.
  8. Literacy Rate: It measures the percentage of individuals within a specific age group who can read and write, reflecting the overall literacy level.
  9. Equity Indicators: These indicators examine educational opportunities and resource distribution among different socioeconomic groups, marginalized populations, and regions within a country.

These indicators help policymakers, planners,  researchers, and education stakeholders understand the status of education, identify gaps and challenges, and develop evidence-based strategies for improving educational outcomes. By considering the child population, these indicators provide valuable insights into children’s access, equity, and quality of education.

Age-Groups Corresponding to Level of Education

In order to compute enrolment and other indicators in school education, it is necessary to consider the child population at different levels of education. The details of the child population required to compute these indicators based on the levels of school education are presented below:

  1. Primary Education
    • Age Group: Typically, primary education covers children in the age group of 6 to 10.
    • Child Population: The child population data within the specified age range is needed to calculate indicators such as Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER), Net Enrolment Ratio (NER), and Out-of-School Children.
  2. Upper Primary Education
    • Age Group: Upper primary education includes children in the age group of 11 to 14.
    • Child Population: The population data for children within the relevant age bracket is required to compute enrolment and transition indicators for upper primary education.
  3. Secondary & Higher Secondary Education
    • Age Group: Secondary education typically covers students in the age group of 15 to 18 years.
    • Child Population: The child population data within the specified age range is necessary to calculate indicators like GER, NER, completion rate, and transition rate for secondary education.
  4. Higher Education
    • Age Group: Higher education encompasses students beyond the secondary level, usually aged 18 years and above.
    • Child Population: In the case of higher education, the focus shifts from the child population to the population of eligible students who have completed secondary education or equivalent qualifications. This population data is used to compute enrollment and attainment indicators for higher education.

It is important to note that the specific age ranges and definitions may vary across countries and educational systems. The availability of accurate and up-to-date child population data is crucial for ensuring the accuracy and relevance of enrolment and other educational indicators. These indicators help assess the reach, inclusiveness, and effectiveness of educational programs and policies, facilitating evidence-based decision-making in the education sector.

Child population (Projected) in Different Age-groups, India & State levels, 2021-22

India/ State/UT Projected Population by Age Group – Overall, 2021-22 (Projected)
Age 6-13 Age 14-15 Age 16-17 Age 6 to17
Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total
India 98740000 89654000 188392000 25179000 23246000 48425000 25896000 23751000 49647000 149815000 136651000 286464000
Andaman and Nicobar Islands 32890 30213 63103 9185 8026 17211 9249 8192 17441 51324 46431 97755
Andhra Pradesh 3043000 2843000 5887000 805000 766000 1571000 845000 799000 1644000 4693000 4408000 9102000
Arunachal Pradesh 115408 111224 226632 34575 33767 68342 31873 31172 63044 181856 176163 358018
Assam 2601000 2452000 5054000 686000 663000 1349000 695000 668000 1362000 3982000 3783000 7765000
Bihar 11538000 10735000 22274000 2858000 2714000 5573000 2875000 2686000 5561000 17271000 16135000 33408000
Chandigarh 101277 79553 180830 27929 20702 48631 30282 22007 52289 159488 122262 281750
Chhattisgarh 2229000 2131000 4360000 545000 528000 1073000 556000 538000 1094000 3330000 3197000 6527000
Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu 56916 48861 105777 14026 10868 24894 16205 10445 26650 87147 70174 157321
Delhi 1320000 1111000 2429000 350000 302000 652000 366000 316000 683000 2036000 1729000 3764000
Goa 111954 100623 212576 30141 26353 56494 29739 27139 56878 171834 154115 325948
Gujarat 4946000 4233000 9178000 1243000 1086000 2329000 1279000 1105000 2384000 7468000 6424000 13891000
Haryana 2155000 1779000 3933000 549000 456000 1005000 564000 469000 1033000 3268000 2704000 5971000
Himachal Pradesh 444000 398000 843000 122000 108000 230000 125000 111000 236000 691000 617000 1309000
Jammu and Kashmir 992000 877000 1869000 305000 264000 569000 295000 259000 554000 1592000 1400000 2992000
Jharkhand 3112000 2922000 6034000 809000 783000 1592000 817000 785000 1602000 4738000 4490000 9228000
Karnataka 4181000 3899000 8078000 1069000 1011000 2080000 1097000 1030000 2128000 6347000 5940000 12286000
Kerala 2016000 1931000 3948000 520000 498000 1017000 524000 501000 1025000 3060000 2930000 5990000
Ladakh 24918 22265 47183 6668 6235 12904 6696 6309 13005 38282 34809 73092
Lakshadweep 5611 5596 11207 1524 1434 2958 1487 1597 3084 8622 8627 17249
Madhya Pradesh 6780000 6283000 13064000 1624000 1516000 3140000 1670000 1543000 3213000 10074000 9342000 19417000
Maharashtra 7876000 6908000 14784000 2109000 1880000 3989000 2153000 1910000 4062000 12138000 10698000 22835000
Manipur 203252 188707 391959 61135 58627 119762 57411 56521 113932 321798 303855 625653
Meghalaya 254265 243271 497535 69893 68140 138033 69767 67416 137183 393925 378827 772751
Mizoram 77927 73759 151685 22226 21269 43495 23402 22490 45892 123555 117518 241072
Nagaland 164262 149937 314199 49242 45129 94371 48676 46387 95063 262180 241453 503633
Odisha 3016000 2847000 5863000 794000 757000 1552000 809000 775000 1585000 4619000 4379000 9000000
Puducherry 105434 96890 202324 28526 25382 53908 27342 25310 52652 161302 147582 308884
Punjab 1822000 1553000 3375000 500000 413000 913000 526000 431000 956000 2848000 2397000 5244000
Rajasthan 6547000 5798000 12345000 1597000 1458000 3055000 1629000 1484000 3112000 9773000 8740000 18512000
Sikkim 41477 39652 81129 13137 12853 25991 14062 13693 27755 68676 66198 134875
Tamil Nadu 4352000 4027000 8379000 1118000 1058000 2176000 1144000 1082000 2225000 6614000 6167000 12780000
Telangana 2292000 2102000 4396000 612000 577000 1189000 638000 600000 1239000 3542000 3279000 6824000
Tripura 232414 218475 450889 69808 66231 136039 75793 69353 145146 378015 354059 732074
Uttar Pradesh 19316000 17162000 36478000 4713000 4272000 8984000 4967000 4467000 9434000 28996000 25901000 54896000
Uttarakhand 790000 675000 1464000 216000 191000 408000 224000 198000 422000 1230000 1064000 2294000
West Bengal 5844000 5579000 11422000 1597000 1540000 3137000 1656000 1586000 3242000 9097000 8705000 17801000
Reference: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Report of the Expert Group on Population Projection, June 2020.

Projected Child Population

Below we discuss the projected child population, which is reported in the Ministry’s UDISE+ 2021-22 Booklet and is based on the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Report of the Expert Group on Population Projection, June 2020.

 

According to the UDISE+ report for 2021-22, the population projection for different age groups has changed slightly compared to last year’s data. In absolute terms, the total population aged between 3 to 17 years in 2021-22 is projected to be 373,064,933, an increase of about 2.6 million from the previous year (370,426,000). In percentage terms, these changes represent relatively small increases across different age groups compared to last year’s data. Overall these data suggest that there has been a slight increase in the projected population across different age groups compared to last year’s data.

  • The total population aged between 6 to 17 years in 2021-22 is projected to be 288,549,200, an increase of about 2.1 million from the previous year (286,464,000).
  • The total population aged between 3 to 5 years in 2021-22 is projected to be 84,515,733, an increase of about 553 thousand from the previous year (83,962,000).
  • The total population aged between 11 to 13 years in 2021-22 is projected to be 71.44 million, an increase of about 0.89 million from the previous year (70.55 million).
  • The total population aged between 14 to 15 years in 2021-22 is projected to be 48.90 million, an increase of about 0.48 million from the previous year (48.42 million).
  • The total population aged between 16 to 17 years in 2021-22 is projected to be 50.05 million, an increase of about 0.41 million from the previous year (49.64 million).

 Overall these data suggest that there has been a slight increase in the projected population across different age groups compared to last year’s data. However, it may be observed that these projections are subject to change and may not accurately reflect actual demographic trends over time. UDISE+ 2021-22 child projections are based on the Expert Committee (2020) set up by the Ministry of Health & Social Welfare, the only official projection available based on the 2011 Census.

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