State-Wise Analysis of Enrolment Decline in Indian Schools: UDISEPlus 2021-22 to 2024-25

State-Wise Analysis of Enrolment Decline in Indian School

State-Wise Analysis of Enrolment Decline in Indian Schools: UDISEPlus 2021-22 to 2024-25

Gender Disparities and Challenges to Universal Secondary Education under NEP 2020

Introduction

India’s National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 envisions achieving universal access to quality education at all levels, with a particular emphasis on secondary education (Grades 9-12) by 2030. This ambitious target aligns with Sustainable Development Goal 4, aiming for inclusive and equitable education that leaves no child behind. However, recent data from the Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISEPlus) reveals a troubling trend: a widespread decline in school enrolment across primary, upper primary, secondary, and higher secondary levels between 2021-22 and 2024-25. At the national level, elementary enrolment (grades 1-8) has dropped by over 10%, while secondary stages show even steeper declines, particularly among boys. This erosion threatens to undermine NEP 2020’s foundational goals, exacerbating dropout rates, widening gender disparities, and hindering the transition to a 5-year-Foundational+3-year-Preparatory+3-year-Middle+4-year-Secondary curricular structure that prioritizes foundational literacy and numeracy up to grade 8, followed by seamless progression to secondary education. It is noteworthy that UDISEPlus data before 2022-23 can be compared with subsequent years, even though data collection methodology is shifted from aggregate enrolment collection to individual student recordings, allowing for reliable trend analysis across these periods.

State-Wise Analysis of Enrolment Decline in Indian Schools, UDISEPlus 2021-22 to 2024-25  [Full-length PDF article with State-wise Tables]

This article, aligned with the mission of Education for All in India to advocate for equitable education through data-driven insights, conducts a state-wise analysis of these declines. Drawing on UDISEPlus data compiled by Prof. Arun C. Mehta, we examine enrolment trends by gender and educational stage, highlighting states with increases amid the downturn. The analysis underscores the urgency of reversing these trends to safeguard India’s demographic dividend and achieve universal secondary education by 2030.

UDISEPlus: Evolution and Current Landscape

The Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISEPlus) traces its roots to the District Information System for Education (DISE), launched in 1994-95 by the National Institute of Educational Planning and Administration (NIEPA) as India’s pioneering effort in educational management information systems (EMIS). Spearheaded by Late Prof. Yash Aggarwal and Prof. Arun C. Mehta, DISE revolutionized data collection by centralizing fragmented reporting from states, covering over 1.5 million schools by the early 2010s, and enabling evidence-based policymaking. Evolving into UDISE in 2012-13, it expanded to include standalone institutions like madrasas and integrated advanced features such as real-time updates and geo-tagging of schools. The 2018-19 rebranding to UDISEPlus marked a digital leap, aligning with the Digital India initiative and the National Digital Education Architecture (NDEAR) for seamless, Aadhaar-linked data integration.

This progression from manual surveys to a unified, technology-driven platform has enhanced transparency and coverage, but the 2018 transfer of UDISE from NIEPA to the Ministry of Education’s Department of School Education and Literacy has rendered prior NIEPA publications obsolete, demanding a comprehensive revamp to reflect updated protocols. To address this, states should be incentivized to perform independent data analyses and release their own analytical reports, promoting tailored interventions and decentralizing educational insights for greater impact.

Review of Enrolment Trends: All-India Overview

At the national level, total enrolment from pre-primary to higher secondary fell from 265.24 million in 2021-22 to 246.93 million in 2024-25 – a decline of 6.90%. This masks sharper drops at higher stages: secondary enrolment decreased by 3.54%, and higher secondary by 3.27%. Elementary levels (grades 1-8) saw a 10.90% plunge, with primary (grades 1-5) hit hardest at 14.33%. Gender-wise, boys experienced more pronounced declines across most stages (e.g., -14.51% in primary vs. -14.13% for girls), potentially signaling vulnerabilities like child labor or migration pressures on male youth.

The table below summarizes All-India enrolment and percentage changes:

%age Change in Enrolment by Levels: 2024-25 over 2021-22

Level 2021-22 2024-25 % Change
Boys Girls Total Boys Girls Total  Boys  Girls  Total
Pre-Primary 5,051,523 4,443,684 9,495,207 7,532,520 6,514,560 14,047,080 49.11 46.60 47.94
Primary (1-5) 63,517,655 58,324,595 121,842,250 54,299,931 50,081,416 104,381,347 -14.51 -14.13 -14.33
Upper Primary (6-8) 34,511,750 32,278,942 66,790,692 32,873,194 30,821,906 63,695,100 -4.75 -4.51 -4.63
Elementary (1-8) 98,029,405 90,603,537 188,632,942 87,173,125 80,903,322 168,076,447 -11.07 -10.71 -10.90
Secondary (9-10) 20,071,918 18,456,713 38,528,631 19,108,582 18,056,854 37,165,436 -4.80 -2.17 -3.54
Higher Secondary (11-12) 14,747,732 13,831,318 28,579,050 13,784,291 13,859,426 27,643,717 -6.53 0.20 -3.27
Primary to HS (1-12) 132,849,055 122,891,568 255,740,623 120,065,998 112,819,602 232,885,600 -9.62 -8.20 -8.94
Total (PP to HS) 137,900,578 127,335,252 265,235,830 127,598,518 119,334,162 246,932,680 -7.47 -6.28 -6.90

Source: UDISEPlus 2021-22 and 2024-25, compiled by Prof. Arun C. Mehta.

Notably, pre-primary enrolment surged by 47.94%, reflecting NEP 2020’s push for early childhood care. However, this masks a “leakage” effect, where foundational gains fail to sustain progression to elementary and secondary stages.

State-Wise Analysis: Declines, Gender Disparities, and Exceptions

State-level variations reveal a patchwork of progress and peril. Bihar recorded the most severe elementary decline (-25.50%), driven by a staggering -27.55% in primary enrolment, with boys dropping 28.02% compared to 27.04% for girls – exacerbating gender gaps in a state already grappling with low female literacy. Uttar Pradesh followed with -14.30% in elementary, where boys’ primary enrolment fell 19.04% versus 20.75% for girls, indicating targeted vulnerabilities for female retention amid economic distress.

Gender-specific declines were acute in secondary stages for boys in states like Madhya Pradesh (-2.39% total secondary, but -3.92% for boys) and Rajasthan (-10.71%, with boys at -0.37% vs. girls +4.34%, a rare female advantage). Higher secondary saw paradoxical gains for girls in Bihar (+8.63% vs. boys -3.68%), possibly due to scholarships, but overall totals declined 2.32%.

Amid the gloom, pockets of resilience emerged. Odisha bucked the trend with +0.96% in secondary (boys +0.62%, girls +1.32%) and +33.22% in higher secondary (boys +32.33%, girls +34.08%), attributed to state initiatives like the “Mukhyamantri Jana Sikshana Paddhati.” Telangana showed +3.12% in secondary and +7.66% in higher secondary total, with girls gaining 8.74%. Dadra & Nagar & Daman & Diu posted increases across elementary (+2.08%) and secondary (+16.12%), while Gujarat’s higher secondary dipped minimally (-1.87%).

The table below highlights select states with notable declines (Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh) and increases (Odisha, Telangana, Gujarat) for elementary (1-8) and secondary (9-12) totals, emphasizing gender:

Change in Enrolment in Selected States in UDISEPlus 2024-25 over 2021-22

Elementary %age Change Secondary %age Change
State/UT Total Boys Girls Total Boys   Girls  
Declines
Bihar -25.50 -26.08 -24.90 -23.45 -26.01 -20.90
Uttar Pradesh -14.30 -13.64 -15.02 -8.28 -11.21 -4.77
Madhya Pradesh -11.03 -11.22 -10.83 -2.39 -3.92 -0.68
Gujarat -8.47 -8.26 -8.70 -1.87 -2.01 -1.71
Increases
Andhra Pradesh +0.94 +0.35 +1.57 -4.37 -1.95 -3.21
Odisha -3.83 -3.95 -3.71 +13.79 +13.50 +14.10
Telangana +1.68 +0.87 +2.56 +3.65 +2.92 +3.34

Note: Secondary here aggregates 9-12 for brevity. Full data available at https://educationforallinindia.com.

These patterns suggest that while northern and central states face systemic retention challenges, eastern and southern outliers demonstrate that targeted interventions can reverse declines. Gender analysis reveals boys bearing the brunt in primary and secondary (e.g., -14.51% national primary for boys), possibly due to agricultural labor demands, while girls show resilience in higher secondary in states like Kerala (+2.04% total, girls +0.89%).

Enrolment Decline Slabs: State-Wise Categorization

To further dissect the crisis, the following table categorizes Indian states and UTs (excluding the national aggregate) based on the percentage decline in total enrolment. Slabs are defined by the magnitude of decline:

  • Up to 5% decline: -0.01% to -5.00% (Mild decline).
  • 5% to 10% decline: -5.01% to -10.00% (Moderate decline).
  • 10% to 15% decline: -10.01% to -15.00% (Significant decline).
  • 15% and above decline: <- 15.01% (Severe decline).

States with increases (positive % change) are noted separately at the bottom.

States distributed by Percentage Decline Slabs:  2024-25

Decline Slab States/UTs: Elementary (1-8) Enrolment % Change States/UTs: Primary to Higher Secondary (1-12) Enrolment % Change
Up to 5% decline Delhi (-2.83%), Goa (-3.16%), Jammu and Kashmir (-4.43%), Ladakh (-4.85%), Lakshadweep (-1.82%), Manipur (-4.72%), Odisha (-3.83%) Delhi (-3.25%), Goa (-3.93%), Jammu and Kashmir (-5.29%), Ladakh (-5.98%), Maharashtra (-5.01%), Manipur (-6.41%)
5% to 10% decline Andaman and Nicobar Islands (-8.62%), Andhra Pradesh (-6.54%), Chhattisgarh (-5.98%), Gujarat (-8.47%), Haryana (-7.41%), Himachal Pradesh (-8.67%), Karnataka (-5.22%), Kerala (-7.56%), Maharashtra (-5.55%), Meghalaya (-7.54%), Nagaland (-9.19%), Punjab (-6.78%), Tamil Nadu (-7.68%), Tripura (-6.00%), Uttarakhand (-7.51%), West Bengal (-7.62%) Andaman and Nicobar Islands (-8.11%), Andhra Pradesh (-3.21%), Assam (-7.82%), Chhattisgarh (-7.71%), Gujarat (-7.18%), Haryana (-7.32%), Himachal Pradesh (-7.55%), Jharkhand (-7.36%), Kerala (-5.06%), Lakshadweep (-8.23%), Meghalaya (-7.97%), Nagaland (-7.45%), Puducherry (-8.44%), Punjab (-6.85%), Tamil Nadu (-6.07%), Tripura (-6.06%), West Bengal (-6.88%)
10% to 15% decline Arunachal Pradesh (-13.27%), Assam (-10.83%), Chandigarh (-11.44%), Jharkhand (-10.47%), Madhya Pradesh (-11.03%), Puducherry (-10.05%), Rajasthan (-13.08%), Sikkim (-12.19%) Arunachal Pradesh (-12.75%), Chandigarh (-9.83%), Madhya Pradesh (-10.36%), Mizoram (-14.10%), Rajasthan (-10.68%), Uttar Pradesh (-11.49%)
15% or above decline Bihar (-25.50%), Mizoram (-15.69%) Bihar (-23.18%), Sikkim (-16.78%)

Increases (positive % change)

  • Elementary (1-8): Dadra & Nagar & Daman & Diu (+2.08%), Telangana (+1.68%).
  • Primary to Higher Secondary (1-12): Dadra & Nagar & Daman & Diu (+3.80%), Odisha (+0.36%), Telangana (+1.61%).

Source: UDISEPlus 2021-22 and 2024-25, compiled by Prof. Arun C. Mehta. Percentages rounded to two decimals.

This slab breakdown underscores a systemic crisis: 75% of States/UTs (27 out of 36) face at least a 5% decline in elementary enrolment, with 22% (8 States/UTs) in the severe 10-15%+ range – led by Bihar’s alarming -25.50%, which alone accounts for millions of lost foundational learners. For grades 1-12, the pattern is marginally better (65% in 5%+ decline slabs), but “leakage” persists, as elementary drops cascade into secondary stages, threatening NEP 2020’s progression goals. Northern and Central states (e.g., Bihar, Uttar Pradesh at -14.30% elementary, Madhya Pradesh) dominate higher slabs, likely due to compounded post-COVID effects, rural migration, and weak retention infrastructure. Southern and UT outliers like Telangana (+1.68% elementary) and Dadra & Nagar & Daman & Diu (+2.08%) offer hope through targeted incentives, but they represent <10% of states.

Irrespective of a state’s size – whether the populous Uttar Pradesh (driving ~20% of national declines) or compact Lakshadweep – India cannot attain 100% Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in secondary education by 2030 without all States/UTs achieving universal retention. National GER is an aggregate weighted by population; laggards like Bihar (10%+ of India’s children) skew the average downward, entrenching regional inequities and derailing SDG 4. A unified national push – via enhanced Student Data Management System (SDMS) integration, state-led analytics (as urged in UDISEPlus reforms), and cross-learning from Telangana digital tracking – must prioritize every jurisdiction to build an equitable foundation.

Concluding Observations

The enrolment decline from 2021-22 to 2024-25, averaging 10.90% in elementary education, poses an existential threat to NEP 2020’s universal secondary education goal by 2030. Even after the introduction of the SDMS in 2022-23 under the Samagra Shiksha initiative – which provides real-time tracking and alerts to prevent dropouts – the persistence of declines into 2024-25 is a profound cause for concern. This indicates implementation shortfalls, where SDMS data may not translate into timely interventions due to overburdened local authorities or inadequate integration with community outreach.

Possible reasons for this ongoing slide include lingering post-COVID learning losses that discourage re-enrollment, economic hardships fueling child labor and migration (disproportionately affecting boys), infrastructural deficits in rural and tribal areas, and uneven SDMS adoption leading to unaddressed at-risk students. Without arresting this, India risks a “lost generation,” with projections estimating 5-7 million fewer secondary completers annually, perpetuating cycles of poverty and inequality. Gender disparities amplify these: boys’ steeper primary declines may stem from familial labor burdens, while girls’ secondary gains in select states highlight the efficacy of schemes like Beti Bachao Beti Padhao.

Amid national downturns, states like Andhra Pradesh (+11.92% in higher secondary), Telangana (+3.65% in secondary 9-12), and Odisha (+13.79% in secondary 9-12) have demonstrated significant increases in key stages, particularly through bolstered pre-primary and higher secondary enrolment in government schools. Can we learn lessons from these exemplars? Absolutely: Andhra Pradesh’s success stems from scholarship expansions like Jagananna Vidya Deevena, which eased financial barriers for higher secondary transitions; Telangana’s gains reflect robust digital tools for attendance tracking and free transport under the “Amma Vodi” program; and Odisha’s model, via the “Mukhyamantri Jana Sikshana Paddhati,” emphasizes community-driven enrollment drives and inclusive infrastructure upgrades. Scaling such localized, incentive-based strategies nationwide could stem the tide.

To avert this, immediate actions are imperative: (1) Strengthen real-time UDISEPlus monitoring with state-specific dashboards; (2) Scale conditional cash transfers and mid-day meals to retain elementary students; (3) Invest in vocational bridges to secondary for at-risk boys; (4) Enhance teacher training and digital equity per NEP 2020; and (5) Foster public-private partnerships, as seen in Odisha’s successes. Unless these steps check the decline, universal secondary education remains elusive – transforming data into action is now non-negotiable.

Suggested Readings

https://educationforallinindia.com