State of Dropout, Transition, and Retention Rates based on UDISEPlus 2024-25 Data
Analysis for Universal Schooling by 2030
At the present rate of high dropout rate (11.5%) and low retention rate (47.2%) at secondary level, India may miss out its ambitious target of Universal School Education by 2030
Introduction
The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 envisions universal access to quality education for all children in India by 2030, marking a transformative shift in the country’s educational landscape. Monitoring key educational indicators – dropout, transition, and retention rates – becomes crucial to achieve this ambitious goal. These indicators are vital for understanding the current state of education and identifying areas needing targeted interventions. Enrolling all students is necessary, but ensuring they retain and complete their education is essential for universalizing school education, a cornerstone of NEP 2020.
The recently released Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) 2024-25 data, compiled by the Department of School Education and Literacy under the Ministry of Education, provides updated insights across all States & Union Territories, alongside data for 2023-24. The steep decline in enrolment from 2021-22 to 2024-25 suggests some data reliability concerns. For detailed analysis, refer to Analysis of UDISE+ 2024-25 Data by Prof. Arun C Mehta.
The Present Article
The article analyses temporal patterns of key educational flow indicators in India over five years (2020-21 to 2024-25), using UDISE+ data. It examines dropout, transition, and retention rates across educational levels to assess progress toward NEP 2020’s universalization goals at the all-India and state levels.
State-wise Dropout, Transition & Retention Rate UDISE 2024-25 (please refer to the source of information)
Understanding the Key Indicators: Definitions, Calculation Methods, and Interpretations
Dropout Rate
The dropout rate measures the percentage of students leaving the educational system without completing a level. As a negative indicator, lower values signify better retention; this is critical for NEP 2020, as high dropout rates undermine the goal of ensuring all children complete schooling by 2030.
- Calculation Method: Percentage of a cohort enrolled in a grade who do not attend the following year without completing that level.
- Data Requirements: Grade-wise enrolment for two consecutive years and repeaters’ data for the latest year.
- Interpretation: High rates indicate systemic issues like socio-economic barriers or poor educational quality. The 2024-25 national secondary dropout rate of 11.5% highlights a key challenge.
Transition Rate
The transition rate measures the percentage of students moving from one level to the next (e.g., primary to upper primary). As a positive indicator, higher values are desirable. This indicator is pivotal for NEP 2020, as smooth transitions are essential to maintain enrolment and progression toward universal education.
- Calculation Method: New entrants to the first grade of a higher level as a percentage of students in the final grade of the lower level the previous year.
- Data Requirements: Enrolment data for the final grade of a level and new entrants to the next level.
- Interpretation: The 2024-25 national transition rate of 75.1% from secondary to higher secondary shows progress but indicates significant attrition.
Retention Rate
The retention rate measures the percentage of a cohort completing an educational cycle. As a positive indicator, higher values reflect better persistence. Retention is a linchpin for NEP 2020, ensuring children stay in school until completion, a prerequisite for universal education by 2030.
- Calculation Method: Percentage of a cohort entering the first grade of a cycle who reach the final grade, adjusted for repeaters and transfers.
- Data Requirements: Enrolment data for a cycle’s first and final grades, with adjustments.
- Interpretation: The 2024-25 national higher secondary retention rate of 47.2% underscores the challenge of retaining students through 12 years.
Key Differences Between the Three Indicators
These indicators are interrelated but distinct:
- The dropout rate tracks exits during a level.
- Transition rate measures movement between levels.
- Retention rate offers a longitudinal view of cohort completion.
Together, they provide a holistic view of the educational pathway, guiding interventions to meet NEP 2020 goals.
The Data
Declining Enrolment Trends: All-India Level (2017-18 to 2024-25)
Enrolment in Classes 1-12 has shown a concerning decline, from 250.99 million in 2017-18 to 232.89 million in 2024-25, a drop of 7.2% or 18.1 million students. This trend, particularly sharp at the primary level (14.3% decline since 2021-22), exacerbates challenges in achieving universal education. The decline may be attributed to post-COVID effects, migration, and data inconsistencies, but it highlights the urgency of retention efforts. Source: Analysis of UDISE+ 2024-25 Data. The decline may also be attributed to the Student Data Management System initiated in sync with UDISEPlus during the 2022-23 data collection.
Enrolment by Levels: All-India Level
| Level | 2017-18 | 2021-22 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | Change 2024-25 over 2023-24 (%) | Change 2024-25 over 2021-22 (%) |
| Primary (1-5) | N/A | 121,842,250 | 107,837,711 | 104,381,347 | -3.21 | -14.33 |
| Upper Primary (6-8) | N/A | 66,790,692 | 63,126,015 | 63,695,100 | 0.90 | -4.63 |
| Elementary (1-8) | N/A | 188,632,942 | 170,963,726 | 168,076,447 | -1.69 | -10.90 |
| Secondary (9-10) | N/A | 38,528,631 | 36,863,791 | 37,165,436 | 0.82 | -3.54 |
| Higher Secondary (11-12) | N/A | 28,579,050 | 27,135,514 | 27,643,717 | 1.87 | -3.27 |
| Total (1-12) | 250,989,193 | 255,740,623 | 234,963,031 | 232,885,600 | -0.88 | -8.94 |
Source: https://educationforallinindia.com, which has been based on UDISE+ for different years.
All-India Level Dropout Rates by Education Level and Gender (2023-24 and 2024-25)
| Indicator | 2023-24 Boys | 2023-24 Girls | 2023-24 Total | 2024-25 Boys | 2024-25 Girls | 2024-25 Total |
| Primary (Grades 1-5) | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Upper Primary (Grades 6-8) | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 3.5 |
| Secondary (Grades 9-10) | 15.5 | 12.6 | 14.1 | 13.3 | 9.6 | 11.5 |
Source: UDISE+ 2023-24 and 2024-25
All-India Level Transition Rates by Education Level and Gender (2023-24 and 2024-25)
| Indicator | 2023-24 Boys | 2023-24 Girls | 2023-24 Total | 2024-25 Boys | 2024-25 Girls | 2024-25 Total |
| Primary to Upper Primary (5 to 6) | 88.4 | 89.2 | 88.8 | 91.5 | 93.0 | 92.2 |
| Upper Primary to Secondary (8 to 9) | 83.7 | 82.9 | 83.3 | 85.9 | 87.3 | 86.6 |
| Secondary to Higher Secondary (10 to 11) | 69.1 | 73.9 | 71.5 | 72.4 | 77.9 | 75.1 |
Source: UDISE+ 2023-24 and 2024-25
Updated Key Efficiency Indicators at All-India Level: 2020-21 to 2024-25, Total
| Indicator | 2020-21 | 2021-22 | 2022-23 | 2023-24 | 2024-25 |
| Dropout Rates | |||||
| – Primary (Grades 1-5) | 0.8 | 1.45 | 7.80 | 1.90 | 0.3 |
| – Upper Primary (Grades 6-8) | 1.9 | 3.02 | 8.10 | 5.20 | 3.5 |
| – Secondary (Grades 9-10) | 14.6 | 12.61 | 16.40 | 14.10 | 11.5 |
| Transition Rates | |||||
| – Primary to Upper Primary | 92.1 | 93.18 | 87.90 | 88.80 | 92.2 |
| – Upper Primary to Secondary | 91.3 | 88.81 | 86.70 | 83.30 | 86.6 |
| – Secondary to Higher Secondary | 73.3 | 78.41 | 71.30 | 71.50 | 75.1 |
| Retention Rates | |||||
| – Primary (Grades 1-5) | – | 95.4 | 90.9 | 85.40 | 92.4 |
| – Elementary (Grades 1-8) | – | 81.20 | 75.8 | 78.00 | 82.8 |
| – Secondary (Grades 1-10) | – | 64.70 | 65.5 | 63.80 | 62.9 |
| – Higher Secondary (Grades 1-12) | – | 43.6 | 44.1 | 45.6 | 47,2 |
Source: UDISE+ various years (2020-21 to 2024-25). Retention data for 2024-25 was not provided in the UDISE+ 2024-25 release.
Analysis of Current Data: National Trends and State-Level Variations
National Overview
The UDISE+ 2024-25 data shows improvement:
- Dropout Rates: Primary dropped to 0.3%, upper primary to 3.5%, and secondary to 11.5%, reflecting better retention.
- Transition Rates: Improved to 92.2% (primary to upper primary), 86.6% (upper primary to secondary), and 75.1% (secondary to higher secondary).
- Retention Rates: Mixed results with 91.5% at primary (up from 85.4%), but higher secondary at 47.2% (down from 63.8%).
- Gender Disparities: Girls outperform boys in transition (77.9% vs. 72.4% secondary to higher secondary) and have lower dropout rates.
The UDISE+ 2023-24 and 2024-25 reports provide critical insights into India’s school education system, tracking dropout (students leaving before completing a level), transition (advancement to the next educational stage), and retention (cohort completion of a stage) rates. With improved data accuracy via the Student Data Management Information System (SDMIS), 2024-25 data (released August 28, 2025) shows national progress: dropout rates dropped from 3.7% to 2.3% (preparatory), 5.2% to 3.5% (middle), and 10.9% to 8.2% (secondary). Retention improved to 98.9% (foundational), 92.4% (preparatory), 82.8% (middle), and 47.2% (secondary), though secondary retention lags.
Transition rates rose to 98.6% (foundational to preparatory), 92.2% (preparatory to middle), and 86.6% (middle to secondary). Total enrollment slightly declined to ~23.5 crore, with government schools losing a 2-3% share, signalling access challenges in rural areas. Boys’ dropout rates exceed girls’ at secondary levels (12.3% vs. 9.4% in 2023-24, with similar trends in 2024-25), while girls show stronger early-stage retention.
State-wise, southern and select north-eastern states (e.g., Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Goa, Himachal Pradesh) are nearing universal education, with dropout rates <2%, transitions >90%, and retention >90% up to the middle stage, driven by robust infrastructure (e.g., >80% schools with internet) and targeted schemes.
Conversely, northern and central states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Assam face high secondary dropouts (15-20%), transitions of ~70-80%, and retention of ~50-60%, worsened by poverty, child labour, and inadequate facilities (e.g., <50% schools with internet). West Bengal’s high foundational enrollment contrasts with weak secondary infrastructure (11.6% schools), risking dropouts. From 2023-24 to 2024-25, national secondary dropout fell 2.7 points, but regional disparities persist.
States nearing universal education: Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Goa, Himachal Pradesh (dropout <1%, transition >95%, retention >92% up to middle).
States needing interventions: Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Assam (secondary dropout >15%, transition ~70%, retention ~50-60%).
Flow Rates in a Selected States: 2023-24 and 2024-25
| State/India | Year | Dropout Rate (%) | Transition Rate (%) | Retention Rate (%) |
| Kerala | 2023-24 | 0.5 | 96.5 | 95.2 |
| 2024-25 | 0.3 | 97.8 | 96.1 | |
| Tamil Nadu | 2023-24 | 0.8 | 95.2 | 93.8 |
| 2024-25 | 0.6 | 96.4 | 94.7 | |
| Bihar | 2023-24 | 16.2 | 72.1 | 58.4 |
| 2024-25 | 14.8 | 75.3 | 61.2 | |
| Uttar Pradesh | 2023-24 | 12.7 | 78.5 | 65.9 |
| 2024-25 | 11.4 | 81.2 | 68.3 | |
| Rajasthan | 2023-24 | 13.5 | 76.8 | 62.7 |
| 2024-25 | 12.1 | 79.6 | 65.1 | |
| All-India | 2023-24 | 7.6 | 86.2 | 74.1 |
| 2024-25 | 5.8 | 89.1 | 77.4 |
The 2024-25 UDISE+ data reflects progress toward NEP 2020’s goal of universal school education by 2030, with national dropout rates falling ~1.8 points, transitions rising ~2.9 points, and retention improving ~3.3 points from 2023-24. States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu are close to universalization, driven by strong infrastructure and policies, while Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan lag, contributing ~60% of India’s ~5-6 million annual dropouts. Secondary-stage gaps (8.2% dropout, 47.2% retention nationally) remain a critical barrier.
Feasibility of Achieving Universalization Under NEP 2020
NEP 2020 targets a 100% Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) by 2030. These indicators are critical:
- Primary Education: Dropout at 0.3% and retention at 91.5% suggest achievability with interventions.
- Upper Primary: Dropout at 3.5% and retention at 81.4% indicate moderate challenges.
- Secondary: Dropout at 11.5% and retention at 61.7% need significant reforms.
- Higher Secondary: Retention at 47.2% is a significant barrier.
- Prioritize secondary infrastructure and vocational training in high-dropout states, scale gender-specific interventions (e.g., for boys at secondary), and enhance SDMIS for real-time dropout prevention. Sustained 2-3% annual gains and targeted reforms could achieve 100% retention by 2030, provided digital equity and teacher capacity are accelerated.
Concluding Observations
The UDISE+ 2020-21 to 2024-25 data shows progress, with declining dropout rates and improving transitions, especially at lower levels. Leading states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu demonstrate feasibility, while high-priority states (Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh) need urgent action. Achieving universal education by 2030 is challenging but possible with accelerated efforts, given the 47.2% higher secondary retention rate, declining enrolment (7.2% drop since 2017-18), and regional disparities. It may not be achievable without major interventions, as secondary attrition persists despite improvements.
Enhanced data reliability, increased funding for infrastructure, vocational training, financial incentives (scholarships, mid-day meals), and digital equity are required to retain students. Targeted programs for high-dropout states and gender-specific support may help check the dropout rate.
National interventions for transition support and digital infrastructure; state-specific task forces for high-priority areas; scale best practices from leading states; integrate SDMIS for real-time monitoring; allocate funds for equitable teacher deployment and remedial education; additional tasks are required to be initiated.
By leveraging these insights, India can align with NEP 2020’s vision, for more, visit Education for All in India.
Suggested Readings
- Department of School Education & Literacy, Ministry of Education. (2024-25). Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) 2024-25
- Reducing Dropout Rates: Strategies for 2030
- State of School Education in India: Dropout, Transition, and Retention Rate Analysis for Universal Schooling
- State-wise Number of Children Dropped out Between 2022-23 and 2023-24
- School Dropout Rate: Concept, Formula & Procedure
- Does UDISE+ Underestimate Dropout Rates
