State of School  Education in India: Dropout, Transition, and Retention Rate Analysis for Universal Schooling

Arun C Mehta, Ex. Professor & Head of the EMIS Department, NIEPA, New Delhi.

 Introduction

The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 envisions universal access to quality education for all children in India by 2030, marking a transformative shift in the country’s educational landscape. To achieve this ambitious goal, monitoring key educational indicators becomes crucial in understanding the current state of education and identifying areas requiring targeted interventions. Dropout, transition, and retention rates serve as critical indicators that reveal the educational system’s effectiveness in ensuring that students enter and successfully progress through different levels of education, without which the goal of universal school education cannot be attained. Needless to say, enrolling all students is a necessary condition, but to attain the universalisation of school education, the sufficient condition is to ensure that whosoever enters the education system must retain and complete an educational level.

The recently released Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) 2023-24 data, compiled by the Department of School Education and Literacy under the Ministry of Education, provides comprehensive insights into these indicators across all States & Union Territories; along with this data for the year 2022-23 was also released. With the steep decline in enrolment from 2021-22 to 2023-24, the school education data is somewhat less reliable and looks unrealistic.

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The Present Article

The article analyses the temporal patterns of key educational flow indicators in India over four years (2020-21 to 2023-24), drawing on Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) data. The study examines dropout, transition, and retention rates across different educational levels to assess progress toward the universalization goals outlined in the National Education Policy 2020 both at all-India and state levels.

State-wise Dropout, Transition & Retention Rate UDISE 2023-24 (please refer the original source of information)

Understanding the Key Indicators: Definitions, Calculation Methods, and Interpretations

Dropout Rate

The dropout rate measures the percentage of students who leave the educational system without completing a given level of education. It serves as a negative indicator where lower values signify better educational retention.

Calculation Method: The dropout rate is calculated as the percentage of students from a cohort enrolled in a given grade who no longer attend school the following year without completing that level of education.

School Dropout Rate: Concept, Formula & Procedure

Data Requirements: In order to calculate dropout rates, grade-wise enrollment for two consecutive academic years and grade-wise repeaters data in the most recent year is required.

Interpretation: Higher dropout rates indicate systemic failures in retaining students, which may stem from socio-economic factors, quality of education, accessibility issues, or cultural barriers. The UDISE+ data reveals significant variations across states and education levels, particularly concerning the secondary level (9-10), where the national average reaches 14.1 percent.

State-wise Number of Children Dropped out Between 2022-23 and 2023-24

Transition Rate

The transition rate measures the percentage of students progressing from one educational level to the next, from primary to upper primary level, upper primary to secondary, and secondary to higher secondary levels; this is a positive indicator where higher values are desirable.

Calculation Method: The transition rate is calculated as the number of new entrants to the first grade of a higher level in a year and is expressed as a percentage of the number of students who enrolled in the final grade of the lower level in the previous year.

Data Requirements: Calculation requires enrolment data for the final grade of a level in a given year and new entrants to the first grade of the next level in the following year.

Transition Rates in School Education in India

Interpretation: Higher transition rates indicate successful progression through the educational pipeline. The UDISE+ data shows that while the transition rate from primary to upper primary at the all-India level is reasonably good at 88.8 percent, it declines significantly for secondary to higher secondary transition at 71.5 percent, indicating substantial attrition at higher levels.

Retention Rate

The retention rate presents the percentage of students from a cohort who remain in the educational system until a given educational cycle is completed; this is also a positive indicator where higher values indicate better student persistence.

Retention rate in school education in India

Calculation Method: The retention rate is the percentage of a cohort of students who entered the first grade of a given educational cycle and reached the final grade of that cycle, regardless of repetition.

Data Requirements: Calculation requires enrollment data for the first grade of an educational cycle for a base year, enrollment data for the final grade of the same cycle after the expected number of years, and adjustments for repeaters and transfers.

Interpretation: Higher retention rates indicate the educational system’s effectiveness in keeping students engaged throughout educational cycles. The UDISE+ data shows concerning patterns, with the national retention rate for the higher secondary level (1-12) at just 45.6 percent, meaning less than half of the students who enter grade 1 remain in the system until grade 12.

Key Differences Between the Three Indicators

While these indicators are interrelated, they measure different aspects of educational flow:

• The dropout rate focuses on students leaving the system during a specific educational level.
• The transition rate examines the movement between two consecutive educational levels.
• Retention rate takes a longitudinal view, tracking cohorts from the beginning to the end of an educational cycle.

Together, these indicators provide a comprehensive picture of the educational pathway, highlighting where students are lost in the system and informing targeted interventions.

The Data

Based on the data from UDISE+, here’s a table summarizing the dropout, transition, and retention rates at the all-India level for the academic years 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24:

Key Efficiency Indicators, All India, 2020-21 to 2023-24

Indicator	2020-21	2021-22	2022-23	2023-24
Dropout Rates
– Primary (Grades 1-5)	0.8	1.45	7.80	1.90
– Upper Primary (Grades 6-8)	1.9	3.02	8.10	5.20
– Secondary (Grades 9-10)	14.6	12.61	16.40	14.10
Transition Rates
– Primary to Upper Primary	92.1	93.18	87.90	88.80
– Upper Primary to Secondary	91.3	88.81	86.70	83.30
– Secondary to Higher Secondary	73.3	78.41	71.30	71.50
Retention Rates
– Primary (Grades 1-5)		95.4	90.9	85.40
– Elementary (Grades 1-8)		81.20	75.8	78.00
– Secondary (Grades 1-10)		64.70	65.5	63.80
– Higher Secondary (Grades 1-12)		43.6	44.1	45.6

            Source: UDISEPlus, different years.

Analysis of Current Data: National Trends and State-Level Variations

National Overview

The UDISE+ 2023-24 data presents a concerning scenario at the national level:

Dropout Rates: While primary dropout rates are relatively low at 1.9 percent, they increase dramatically to 14.1 percent at the secondary level, indicating a critical transition point where many students leave the education system.

Transition Rates: The national transition rate from primary to upper primary stands at 88.8 percent, decreasing to 83.3 percent for upper primary to secondary and further declining to 71.5 percent for secondary to higher secondary. This progressive decline highlights increasing barriers as students advance to higher levels.

Retention Rates: The retention rates show a stark decline across educational levels, from 85.4 percent at the primary level to just 45.6 percent at the higher secondary level, revealing that less than half of the students who enter the system complete 12 years of schooling.

Gender Disparities: Interestingly, at the national level, girls show better retention than boys at the higher secondary level (47.5 percent vs. 43.8 percent), contrasting with the historical pattern of higher female dropout rates. However, this pattern varies significantly across states.

State-Level Analysis

The data reveals substantial interstate variations that require targeted approaches:

States Requiring Immediate Attention

Bihar: Shows alarmingly high dropout rates across all levels (8.9 percent primary, 25.9 percent upper primary, 25.6 percent secondary) coupled with the lowest transition rate from upper primary to secondary (31.5 percent); this indicates severe systemic challenges requiring urgent intervention.

Assam: Reports consistently high dropout rates (6.2 percent primary, 8.2 percent upper primary, 25.1 percent secondary) and poor secondary to higher secondary transition rate (52.5 percent), suggesting significant barriers in educational continuity.

Meghalaya: Demonstrates high dropout rates (7.5 percent primary, 12.4 percent upper primary, 22.0 percent secondary) combined with the lowest secondary to higher secondary transition rate (42.8 percent) and concerning retention rates (19.8 percent at higher secondary level).

Arunachal Pradesh: It shows elevated dropout rates across all levels (5.4 percent primary, 6.8 percent upper primary, 19.3 percent secondary), with low retention rates (19.0 percent at higher secondary level).

States Approaching Universalization

Kerala: Demonstrates exemplary performance with zero dropout rates at primary and upper primary levels, high transition rates (98.1 percent primary to upper primary, 98.8 percent upper primary to secondary), and remarkable retention rates (90.4 percent at higher secondary level).

Tamil Nadu: Maintains zero dropout rates at primary and upper primary levels, perfect transition rates from primary through secondary, and strong retention rates (68.6 percent at higher secondary level).

Himachal Pradesh: Shows negligible primary dropout rates, high transition rates across all levels, and impressive retention rates (78.9 percent at higher secondary level).

Chandigarh: Reports zero primary dropout rates, near-perfect transition rates across all levels (including 100 percent for secondary to higher secondary), and retention rates exceeding 100 percent at several levels due to interstate migration for education.

Critical Gender-Specific Observations

Gender Advantage Reversal: In 28 out of 36 states/UTs, girls show lower dropout rates than boys at the secondary level, contrasting with historical patterns.

Secondary to Higher Secondary Transition: Girls outperform boys in this critical transition in 31 states/UTs, with the national average showing a 4.8 percentage point advantage for girls (73.9 percent vs. 69.1 percent).

Concerning Exceptions: In Uttar Pradesh, while girls have better retention at primary and elementary levels, they fall behind boys at the secondary level, suggesting potential gender-specific barriers emerging during adolescence.

Feasibility of Achieving Universalization Under NEP 2020

The NEP 2020 targets a 100 percent Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) in preschool to secondary education by 2030. Based on current UDISE+ data, this goal faces significant challenges:

Primary Education: With national dropout rates at 1.9 percent and retention rates at 85.4 percent, universal primary education appears achievable with targeted interventions in high-dropout states.

Upper Primary Education: The national dropout rate of 5.2 percent and declining retention rates indicate moderate challenges that require focused attention.

Secondary Education: With a national dropout rate of 14.1 percent and a retention rate of 63.8 percent, achieving universalization at this level requires substantial systemic reforms.

Higher Secondary Education: The retention rate of just 45.6 percent presents the most significant barrier to universalization, requiring transformative interventions.

Strategic Interventions Under Samagra Shiksha

To address the challenges and the unfinished task, the Samagra Shiksha scheme should incorporate the following interventions in annual planning:

National Level Interventions

Transition Support Programs: Establish dedicated support mechanisms at critical transition points, particularly from upper primary to secondary and secondary to higher secondary.

Secondary Education Revitalization: Develop a focused national initiative to address the 14.1 percent dropout rate at the secondary level through curriculum reforms, career counseling, and financial incentives.

Data-Driven Early Warning Systems: Implement predictive analytics to identify students at risk of dropping out from the system and enable preemptive interventions. The SDMIS was initiated during 2022-23 as a part of UDISE+ and may be fully utilized as it is said to be a real-time system.

Teacher Professional Development: Focus on capacity building for teachers to engage students and implement inclusive teaching methods effectively. The outcome of the National Achievement Survey must have follow-up activities across the country.

Digital Infrastructure Enhancement: Accelerate digital integration to improve educational access and quality, particularly in underserved regions. A concrete scheme to enhance the digital presence of each school must be initiated to free India from the digital divide.

State-Specific Interventions

High Priority States (Bihar, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh):

• Establish Inter-Ministerial Task Forces to address multi-dimensional barriers
• Implement residential school models to overcome geographical and infrastructural challenges
• Introduce context-specific vocational integration at the secondary level
• Develop targeted financial incentives addressing economic barriers to education

Moderate Challenge States (Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gujarat, Karnataka)

• Focus on secondary retention strategies
• Strengthen school-community linkages
• Implement mentor-mentee programs at transition points
• Develop industry partnerships for relevant skill development

Leading States (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh):

• Document and scale best practices
• Develop peer learning mechanisms between states
• Focus on quality enhancement and higher education linkages
• Establish innovation hubs for educational excellence

Gender-Specific Interventions

For Girls

• Continue successful incentive programs while addressing regional disparities.
• Focus on states with persistent gender gaps (particularly in northern states)
• Strengthen female role model programs and career mentoring
• Address safety concerns in school infrastructure and transportation

For Boys

• Address emerging concerns of higher male dropout rates in many states
• Develop targeted interventions addressing male-specific factors (early entry into the workforce)
• Implement engagement strategies targeting adolescent boys
• Create alternative educational pathways with formal certification

Concluding Observations

The analysis of dropout, transition, and retention rates from the UDISE+ 2020-21 to 2023-24 data reveals progress and persistent challenges toward universal education. While some states have demonstrated remarkable success in keeping students in the educational system, others require urgent, intensive interventions to address alarming attrition rates.

The significant interstate and inter-level variations highlight the need for contextualized approaches rather than one-size-fits-all solutions. The Samagra Shiksha initiative must evolve from a generalized funding mechanism to a strategic framework that addresses specific state and regional challenges with tailored interventions.

The gender dimension adds another layer of complexity, with traditional gender disadvantages shifting and new patterns emerging that require nuanced responses. The positive trend of girls outperforming boys in many educational metrics presents an opportunity to understand successful interventions while developing new strategies for emerging challenges.

Achieving the NEP 2020 goal of universal education requires moving beyond enrolment-focused metrics to a comprehensive approach addressing the entire educational pathway. By leveraging the detailed insights from dropout, transition, and retention rates, policymakers can develop targeted strategies that ensure every child enters and completes quality education, fulfilling the transformative vision of NEP 2020.

References

Department of School Education & Literacy, Ministry of Education. (2023-24). Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) 2023-24. https://udiseplus.gov.in/

Ministry of Education, Government of India. (2020). National Education Policy 2020. https://www.education.gov.in/sites/upload_files/mhrd/files/NEP_Final_English_0.pdf

Ministry of Education, Government of India. (2023). Samagra Shiksha Scheme Guidelines. https://samagra.education.gov.in/

UNESCO Institute for Statistics. (2023). Education Indicators Technical Guidelines. http://uis.unesco.org/en/methodology

NITI Aayog. (2023). SDG India Index and Dashboard. https://sdgindiaindex.niti.gov.in/

World Bank. (2022). Learning Poverty in India: Strategies for Reduction. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/india/publication/learning-poverty-in-india-strategies-for-reduction

Education for All in India. https://educationforallinindia.com