Infographic showing India's target of 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio in higher education by 2035 highlighting the critical role of school education efficiency.

Can India Achieve 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio in Higher Education by 2035?

The Critical Role of School Education Efficiency


Prof. Arun C. Mehta
Formerly Professor & Head, Department of EMIS, NIEPA, New Delhi
Education for All in India – https://educationforallinindia.com

Published: November 19, 2025

Abstract

The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 envisions a 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in higher education by 2035 – a transformative leap from the current 28.4% (AISHE 2021–22), requiring approximately 70 million enrolments. The recent CII-Grant Thornton Bharat report (November 2025), as covered in The Times of India, escalates this projection to 86.11 million, demanding an 85% expansion and a sustained 5.3% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR). While such ambitions signal India’s resolve to harness its demographic dividend, they fundamentally overlook a structural reality: higher education enrolment is directly determined by the supply of higher secondary graduates. Using the latest Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) 2024-25 and All India Survey on Higher Education (AISHE) data, this article demonstrates that without dramatic improvements in school education efficiency – measured through dropout rates, transition rates, and retention at Grades 10 and 12 – the 50% GER target by 2035 is unattainable. The analysis integrates state-level disparities, identifies states on the verge of universal school education, and highlights populous laggards whose inefficiencies threaten both school and higher education goals. It concludes that school-level reforms are the non-negotiable prerequisite for higher education expansion.

A data dashboard showing higher-education trends in India, including GER growth from 2020 to 2035, enrollment projections, a school retention funnel, and secondary GER percentages for six states.

Higher Education Trends Dashboard illustrating GER growth, projected enrollment numbers, school retention pipeline, and state-wise secondary GER performance in India.


Introduction

India stands at a pivotal moment in its educational journey. The NEP 2020 mandates a 50% GER in higher education by 2035 – a goal that would position the country among global leaders in tertiary access. Recent projections vary: the CII-Grant Thornton report estimates a need for 86.11 million enrolments, while earlier analyses, including one by Prof. Arun C Mehta, project approximately 70 million based on a conservative 18–23-year cohort of 140 million (Mehta, 2021; 2025a). Regardless of the exact figure, the underlying arithmetic is unforgiving: achieving this target demands not merely institutional expansion but a robust and reliable pipeline of eligible graduates from the school system.

Enrolment in higher education is not an independent variable; it is the output of the school education ecosystem. The number of students completing Grade 12 determines the upper bound of potential higher education entrants. As UDISE+ 2024-25 data reveals, systemic inefficiencies – high dropout rates, low transition rates between levels, and poor retention at critical junctures (Grades 10 and 12) – severely constrict this supply. This article argues that the 50% GER target cannot be achieved without first enhancing the efficiency of the school education sector. Drawing on official statistics, longitudinal trends, and state-level contrasts, it quantifies the required improvements and outlines a data-driven pathway forward.

School-to-Higher Education Pipeline: A Quantitative Diagnosis


1. Current Enrolment and Flow Indicators: – UDISE+ 2024–25

The latest UDISE+ data paints a concerning picture of declining enrolments and persistent inefficiencies:

  • Total School Enrolment: 24.69 crore in 2024–25, down 11 lakh from 24.8 crore in 2023–24 and marking a seven-year low.
  • Primary Decline: A sharp drop of 3.46 million students (3.21%).
  • Secondary GER: 78.7%
  • Higher Secondary GER: 58.4%, with approximately 2.76 crore students enrolled in Grades 11–12.
  • Transition Rates:
    • Primary to Upper Primary: 92.2%
    • Upper Primary to Secondary: 86.6%
    • Secondary to Higher Secondary: 75.1% (a critical bottleneck)
  • Dropout Rates:
    • Secondary Level: 11.5% (improved from 14.1% in 2021–22 but still high)
    • Absolute Dropouts (Classes 1–12): 6.8 million between 2023–24 and 2024–25
  • Retention Rates:
    • Elementary (I–VIII): 82.8%
    • Secondary (I–X): 62.9%
    • Full Cycle (I–XII): 47.2%

These metrics reveal a “leaky pipeline.” For every 100 students entering Grade 1, fewer than 50 reach Grade 12 – a retention failure that directly caps higher education intake.

2. Higher Education Demand and Supply Mismatch

AISHE 2021–22 reports a higher education GER of 28.4%, with 43.3 million students. To reach 50% by 2035:

  • Required Enrolments: ~70 million (conservative estimate) or 86 million per CII projections.
  • Annual Growth Needed: 4.1% (Prof. Arun C Mehta’s estimate) to 5.3% (CII).
  • Historical Reality: Average CAGR of 3.5% (2014–21), slowing to 2.5% post-COVID.

Critically, higher education cannot grow faster than the supply of Grade 12 graduates. With only 2.76 crore students currently in higher secondary and a 75.1% transition rate from secondary, the eligible pool is structurally constrained. Even if 100% of Grade 12 completers pursued higher education (an unrealistic assumption), the current output falls far short of the 40–50 million annual graduates needed to sustain 70–86 million enrolments.

Why School Efficiency is the Binding Constraint


Why the Numbers are Ruthless

To reach even the modest target of 70 million students in higher education by 2035, India needs a steady, ample supply of students who have completed Grade 12.

Right now, only about 40–50 out of every 100 students who enter Grade 1 eventually pass Grade 12 and become eligible for college or university. That means more than half of the original batch is lost along the way due to dropouts, failures, or simply never making the jump from Grade 10 to Grade 11.

Even if we become very optimistic and assume that 50% of all Grade 12 passers go on to higher education (which is already higher than the present reality in most states), we still need 140 million Grade 12 graduates between 2030 and 2035 to produce the 70 million college students.

Spread over those six years, that works out to roughly 23 million fresh Grade 12 graduates every single year.

Where are we today?

We are producing only about 13 million Grade 12 graduates annually (derived from the current 2.76 crore students enrolled in Classes 11–12 and the fact that many do not complete the full Cycle).

In plain words: we need to almost double the number of students who successfully complete Grade 12 each year –  and do so within the next decade.

That can only happen if:

  • Almost every child who finishes Grade 10 immediately joins Grade 11 (transition rate must rise from today’s 75% to 95%+).
  • Dropouts at the secondary level (Grades 9–10) fall from the current 11.5% to below 3%.
  • Overall retention from Grade 1 to Grade 12 rises from today’s 47% to at least 80%.

Bottom line: No matter how many new universities we build, how many online courses we launch, or how much private investment we bring in, higher education seats will remain empty if the school system does not deliver enough Grade 12 graduates. The bottleneck is not in the colleges – it is in the schools, especially in the four most populous states (Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and West Bengal) that together lose millions of children every year.

Fix the school pipeline first. Only then can the dream of higher education at 50% become a reality.

Efficiency Targets for 2035

To generate 23 million annual Grade 12 graduates: These are minimum thresholds. Achieving them demands systemic overhaul, not incremental tweaks.

Indicator Current: 2024–25 Required by 2030 Required by 2035
Secondary, GER 78.7% 90% 95%
Higher Secondary, GER 58.4% 75% 85%
Transition  Rate (X → XI) 75.1% 90% 95%
Dropout Rate (Secondary) 11.5% <5% <3%
Retention Rate (I–XII) 47.2% 70% 80%

State-Level Disparities: Leaders and Laggards

National aggregates conceal stark regional variations. A few states are on the verge of universal school education (secondary GER >85%, dropouts <5%, and transitions >90%), while populous laggards – 0collectively housing over 40% of India’s youth – drag the average downward and threaten both school and higher education goals.

States on the Verge of Universal School Education: 2024-25

State/UT Secondary GER Dropout (Secondary) Transition (X–XI) Retention (I–XII) Key Strength
Kerala 95%+ 1.2% 98% 85%+ Near-universal retention; strong equity models.
Himachal Pradesh 92% 2.4% 95% 78% Low rural dropouts; high female GPI.
Tamil Nadu 90% 3.1% 92% 75% Robust infrastructure; OBC/SC inclusion.
Chandigarh 94% 1.5% 96% 82% Urban efficiency: the highest Higher Education GER (64.8%).

Populous Laggards: The National Bottleneck

State Population (2025 est.) Secondary GER Dropout (Secondary) Transition (X–XI) Retention (I–XII) Key Risk
Bihar ~125 million 51.1% 17.2% 70% 40% ~1.5M annual dropouts; lowest NER.
Uttar Pradesh ~240 million 68.2% 12.5% 72% 45% ~3M dropouts; enrollment crash (-2.8M).
Madhya Pradesh ~86 million 60% 10.8% 75% 48% ST Raps; infra deficits.
West Bengal ~100 million 65% 11.2% 73% 50% Urban-Rural divide; 1M+ enrollment dip.

These four states alone account for ~35% of India’s school-age population, but approximately less than 25% of higher secondary graduates. Their inefficiencies could cap national Higher Education GER at 35-40% by 2035.

Pathways to Efficiency: A Data-Driven Reform Agenda

Achieving the required school efficiency is feasible but demands urgent, evidence-based action:

  1. Replicate Success Models: Scale Kerala/Tamil Nadu’s retention strategies (e.g., mid-day meals to Grade 12, digital tracking) to laggard states.
  2. Targeted Interventions in Laggards: ₹10,000+ crore special package for Bihar/UP: 50% more KGBVs, vocational hubs from Grade 9. Use UDISE+ SDMS for real-time dropout alerts.
  3. Strengthen Transitions and Retention: Mandatory counselling and credit pathways from Grade 10. Expand PM SHRI schools to 50,000 by 2030.
  4. Leverage Technology and Equity: Equip 90% of secondary schools with digital infrastructure (Internet current: 63.5%). Integrate SWAYAM credits into school curricula.
  5. Governance and Funding: Increase Samagra Shiksha allocation by 50% (from approx ₹37,010 crore – quarterly state-level EMIS dashboards.

Concluding Observations

The vision of a 50% GER in higher education by 2035, as articulated in NEP 2020 and amplified by the CII-Grant Thornton report, is inspiring but fundamentally misconceived without a prior revolution in school education efficiency. Higher education enrolment cannot outpace the supply of higher secondary graduates. With current retention rates yielding fewer than half of Grade 1 entrants to Grade 12, and transition rates faltering at 75.1% from secondary to higher secondary, India faces a structural ceiling far below the aspirational target.

States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu prove that universal school education is achievable. But populous laggards – Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and West Bengal – represent the binding constraint. Their combined inefficiencies could derail both the nation’s school and higher education goals.

The path forward is clear: school education must be the priority. Only by achieving near-universal secondary completion, 90%+ transition rates, and dropout rates below 5% – especially in high-population states – can India generate the 23 million annual Grade 12 graduates needed to fuel higher education expansion; this is not a sequential process – school and higher education reforms must proceed in parallel, guided by real-time data from UDISE+ and AISHE.

At Education for All in India, we reaffirm: No higher education miracle is possible without a foundation in school education. Policymakers, educators, and industry must shift focus from seat creation to student retention. The demographic dividend is not guaranteed – it must be earned, one graduate at a time.

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Published on Education for All in India | November 17, 2025
Cite as: Mehta, A. C. (2025). Can India Achieve 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio in Higher Education by 2035? The Critical Role of School Education Efficiency. Education for All in India. https://educationforallinindia.com