Achieving 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio in Higher Education in India by 2035

Achieving 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio in Higher Education in India by 2035

Achieving 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio in Higher Education in India by 2035: Feasibility, Indicators, and Strategic Imperatives


Abstract

The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 targets a 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in higher education by 2035, a significant leap from the current 28.4% (2021–22). This study evaluates the feasibility of this goal at national and state levels, identifies key higher and school education indicators, and quantifies the unfinished task. Drawing on data from the All India Survey on Higher Education (AISHE) 2021–22 and Unified District Information System for Education Plus (UDISE+) 2023–24, it underscores the dependency of higher education on higher secondary graduates and critiques data limitations due to the absence of a 2021 census. The analysis projects a shortfall unless school education efficiency, infrastructure, and inclusivity are significantly enhanced. Key indicators and recommendations provide a roadmap to achieve the NEP 2020 vision.

Introduction

India’s ambition to achieve a 50% GER in higher education by 2035, as outlined in NEP 2020, is central to its goal of becoming a developed economy by 2047 (MHRD, 2020). With a current GER of 28.4% and 43.3 million students enrolled (AISHE 2021–22), the target requires enrolling 70 million students, a 61.7% increase. Higher education enrolment hinges on the supply of higher secondary graduates, necessitating robust school education systems. This article assesses the feasibility of the 50% GER goal, identifies critical indicators for higher and school education, and proposes strategies to bridge the gap. It addresses regional disparities, data limitations, and expert projections (2016–2036), emphasizing the pivotal role of school education efficiency.

Review of Literature

NEP 2020 builds on initiatives like Rashtriya Uchchatar Shiksha Abhiyan (RUSA), aiming for 32% GER by 2022 (Mehta, 2021). The GER has risen from 23.7% in 2014–15 to 28.4% in 2021–22, driven by expanded institutions and inclusivity efforts (AISHE 2021–22). However, low transition rates (88.81% from elementary to secondary, 78.41% to higher secondary) and high secondary dropout rates (14.1%) limit the pool of higher education entrants (UDISE+ 2023–24; Mehta, 2022).

Expert committee projections (MHRD, 2016–2036) estimated a need for 60 million higher education seats by 2035, requiring 7 – 8% annual enrolment growth and 60,000 institutions (MHRD, 2016). Current trends (1.5–2% growth) and declining school enrolment (14.12 million fewer students from 2020–21 to 2023–24) suggest a shortfall (Mehta, 2025). The absence of a 2021 census complicates GER calculations, relying on 2011 projections (Sitharam, 2024). Regional disparities, with Tamil Nadu at 47% GER and Bihar at 16%, further challenge uniform progress (AISHE 2021–22). Scholars argue that higher education goals are unattainable without addressing school education inefficiencies (Mehta, 2024).

Methodology

This study integrates quantitative and qualitative approaches, analysing AISHE 2021–22 and UDISE+ 2023–24 data to establish baseline GER, enrolment, and transition rates. Expert projections (MHRD, 2016–2036) and current trends inform feasibility assessments. Key indicators are derived for higher education (enrolment, GER, institutions) and school education (transition rates, dropout rates, infrastructure). The unfinished task is quantified, assuming a 140 million 18–23-year population (2011 census-based projections).

Analysis of Data at School & Higher Education Level

Current Status

  • Higher Education GER (2021–22): 28.4% (43.3 million students).
  • High GER States: Tamil Nadu (47%), Chandigarh (64.8%), Delhi (44%).
  • Low GER States: Bihar (16%), Uttar Pradesh (22%), Jharkhand (19%).

  • School Education GER (2023–24)

  • Primary: 93%.
  • Secondary: 77.4%.
  • Higher Secondary: 56.2% (26 million students).

  • Transition Rates (2021–22)

  • Elementary to Secondary: 88.81%.
  • Secondary to Higher Secondary: 78.41%.
  • Dropout Rate: 14.1% at secondary level.
  • Infrastructure: 57.2% of schools have computers, 53.9% have internet (UDISE+ 2023–24).

Unfinished Task

To achieve 50% GER by 2035, India must enroll 70 million students, requiring:

  • Additional Enrollment:7 million students (61.7% increase).
  • Annual Growth:7% in enrolment (2.05 million students annually), compared to 1.5–2% currently.
  • Higher Secondary Graduates: Increase from 26 million to 40 million (75% GER at higher secondary).
  • Institutions: Expand from 48,000 to 60,000 (923 new institutions annually).

The absence of a 2021 census obscures the 18–23-year population, potentially skewing GER estimates. Current trends project a 38 – 40% GER by 2035 without interventions.

Feasibility Assessment

Achieving 50% GER by 2035 is challenging but feasible with aggressive reforms. Key constraints include:

  • School Education Inefficiencies: Low transition rates and high dropouts limit higher secondary graduates. Only 42.4% of 16–17-year-olds are enrolled in higher secondary (Mehta, 2022).
  • Slow Enrolment Growth: Historical growth rates (1.5–2%) are insufficient for the required 4.7%.
  • Regional Disparities: Low-GER states require 3–4% annual growth to reach 40%.
  • Infrastructure Gaps: Limited digital access and faculty shortages hinder scalability.
  • Data Limitations: Outdated population estimates complicate planning.

Expert projections (MHRD, 2016–2036) assumed robust school education improvements, which UDISE+ data contradicts, with a 14.12 million enrolment decline (2020–21 to 2023–24) (Mehta, 2025). The target is at risk without doubling current growth rates and addressing school education bottlenecks.

Key Indicators for 2035

Higher Education

  • GER: 50% (70 million students).
  • Enrolment Growth: 4.7% annually (2.05 million additional students).
  • Institutions: 60,000 (12,000 new institutions).
  • Student-teacher ratio: 20:1 (3.5 million teachers).
  • Equity: 50% GER for females, 40% for SC/ST.
  • Funding: 2% of GDP for higher education (6% of total education).
  • State-Level GER: Minimum 40% in all states.

School Education

  • Secondary GER: 90% (from 77.4%).
  • Higher Secondary GER: 75% (from 56.2%).
  • Transition Rates: 95% (elementary to secondary), 90% (secondary to higher secondary).
  • Dropout Rate: Below 5% at secondary level.
  • Infrastructure: 90% of schools have computers and internet access.
  • Learning Outcomes: 80% proficiency in reading and math (from 44.2% and 25.3%).

A Few Suggestions

              1            Enhance School Education Efficiency

  • Achieve 95% transition and 5% dropout rates through Samagra Shiksha and PM SHRI.
  • Expand vocational education to retain 1 million students annually in higher secondary.

              2            Scale Higher Education Infrastructure

  • Establish 12,000 new institutions, prioritizing low-GER states.
  • Upgrade 10,000 institutions under RUSA for quality and capacity.

              3            Promote inclusivity

  • Increase scholarships for SC/ST and female students to achieve 40% GER for marginalized groups.
  • Launch outreach in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand to boost enrolment by 20%.

              4            Leverage Technology

  • Scale online learning (SWAYAM, NPTEL) for 15% of higher education enrolment.
  • Equip 90% of schools with digital infrastructure by 2035.

              5            Increase Funding for Education

  • Raise education spending to 6% of GDP, with ₹50,000 crore annually for higher education.

              6            Address Data Gaps

  • Conduct an interim population survey to update 18–23-year cohort estimates.
  • Strengthen UDISE+ and AISHE for real-time data.

Concluding Observations

Achieving a 50% GER in higher education by 2035 is a formidable but attainable goal if India addresses systemic challenges. The dependency on higher secondary graduates underscores the need for education reforms, including higher transition rates and lower dropouts. Key indicators provide a measurable roadmap, but current trends (1.5–2% growth) suggest a shortfall unless annual enrolment growth doubles. Regional disparities, infrastructure gaps, and data limitations further complicate progress. By implementing recommended reforms—enhancing school efficiency, expanding institutions, promoting inclusivity, and increasing funding – India can align with NEP 2020’s vision, fostering a skilled workforce for 2047.

Suggested Readings

  • AISHE (2021–22). All India Survey on Higher Education 2020–2021. Ministry of Education, Government of India. https://www.education.gov.in/aishe
  • ASER (2022). Annual Status of Education Report 2022. ASER Centre.
  • Mehta, A. C. (2021). Fifty Percent GER at Higher Education Level by 2035. Education for All in India. https://educationforallinindia.com
  • Mehta, A. C. (2022). Decoding UDISE+ 2021–22 Enrolment Ratios under Samagra Shiksha. Education for All in India. https://educationforallinindia.com
  • Mehta, A. C. (2024). The Present Status of India’s Education System: A Critical Analysis. Education for All in India. https://educationforallinindia.com
  • Mehta, A. C. (2025). UDISEPlus 2022–23 and 2023–24 Analysis. Education for All in India. https://educationforallinindia.com
  • MHRD (2016). Expert Committee Projections for Higher Education, 2016–2036. Ministry of Human Resource Development, Government of India.
  • MHRD (2020). National Education Policy 2020. Ministry of Human Resource Development, Government of India.
  • Sitharam, T. G. (2024). Gross Enrolment Ratio for Higher Education Only 28.3% in the Country. The Hindu.
  • UDISE+ (2023–24). Unified District Information System for Education Plus Reports. Ministry of Education, Government of India. https://udiseplus.gov.in

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