Why Enrolment is Declining in Some States Despite Universalization?
Why Enrolment is Declining in Some States Despite Universalization (UDISEPlus 2024–25 Analysis)
Written for Education for All in India — https://educationforallinindia.com [PDF]
Abstract
Despite decades of effort toward Education for All, recent UDISEPlus (2024–25) data reveal that several Indian states have recorded declines in school enrolment compared to 2021–22. This article analyses the paradox of falling enrolment despite universalization, drawing on authentic data from UDISEPlus, Sample Registration System (SRS), NAS, and ASER.
The findings suggest that while declining birth rates and demographic transitions partially explain the trend, issues of data reliability, private school reporting, and migration also contribute. Moreover, the focus on enrolment numbers has overshadowed learning quality, as national surveys consistently reveal that a large proportion of students fail to achieve even basic literacy and numeracy.
The paper concludes that Artificial Intelligence (AI) can play a transformative role in improving both enrolment tracking and learning assessment — but India must first achieve universal digital readiness across schools. Unless these challenges are addressed, India risks achieving demographic universalization (fewer children) without educational universalization (all children learning well).
KSF (Key Searchable Features)
enrolment decline India, UDISEPlus 2024-25 data, demographic transition India, birth rate SRS, school education Bihar Uttar Pradesh, universalization NEP 2020, quality learning NAS ASER, AI in education monitoring, digital divide Indian schools, universal digital infrastructure, education statistics India, Arun C Mehta analysis
Introduction
Historically, school enrolment data in India have often been viewed as unreliable and inconsistent, with sudden jumps or unexplained declines between years. Earlier systems of data collection were aggregate-based and susceptible to misreporting. The shift to UDISEPlus, which uses individual student data, was expected to correct these inconsistencies.
Yet, even after three rounds of individual-level data collection (2021–22 to 2024–25), enrolment continues to decline in several states. This raises a serious policy question: Is India witnessing a genuine demographic transition, or are there data and structural issues that continue to distort enrolment statistics?
Trends in Enrolment: Insights from UDISEPlus 2024–25
Analysis of the latest UDISEPlus dataset shows that enrolment has fallen in a number of large states — particularly Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal — even as smaller and southern states maintain or slightly increase enrolment.
While the national trend indicates overall stability, the decline in populous states is significant because it affects India’s aggregate goal of universal education. The reduction is sharper in primary grades, suggesting fewer children entering school — consistent with demographic changes, but also raising concerns about out-of-school children and private school underreporting.
- Enrolment Declines at School Education Level: A Data-Based Analysis (UDISE+ 2021-2025)
- Enrolment Declines at School Education Level 2024-25 [PDF]
- State-wise Enrolment Change in 2024-25 over 2021-22 based on UDISEPlus Data by ArunCmehta: Decline in Enrolment, % Boys & Girls Enrolment, Share of State to Total Enrolment
Demographic Transition and Evidence from SRS
It is widely believed that declining enrolment is linked to fewer births and shrinking school-age populations. Although the last Census was held in 2011, Sample Registration System (SRS) data provide consistent evidence of declining birth rates across most states.
For example, SRS 2022 reports a national crude birth rate of 19.5 per 1,000 population, down from 22.1 in 2011. Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, while still above the national average, have also shown steady declines. This indicates that the base of potential new entrants to school is narrowing – a demographic shift that could partly explain reduced enrolment.
However, this is not the whole story. Even in states where population growth remains positive, enrolment has fallen, suggesting that other factors — including household migration, early dropouts, and data quality issues — are influencing the trend.
About this Article and Data Sources
This article is based exclusively on official datasets:
- UDISEPlus 2021–22 to 2024–25, Ministry of Education
- Sample Registration System (SRS) 2011–2022, Registrar General of India
- National Achievement Survey (NAS) 2021, NCERT
- ASER 2023, Pratham
Despite significant progress in data systems, school enrolment data are not yet free from errors. Many private unaided schools fail to report, and duplication or incomplete student records persist.
If the current pattern of declining enrolment in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and other populous states continues, India could face a situation where universal school enrolment remains an unfinished goal even as the school-age population declines.
Beyond Numbers: The Quality Deficit in Universal Schooling
India’s education policies have long emphasized numbers — enrolment, schools, and teachers — but learning quality remains alarmingly low.
Evidence from NAS and ASER
– NAS 2021 found that average national scores across grades and subjects were below 50%, with rural and government schools performing worst.
– ASER 2023 reported that only 43% of Grade 5 students could read a simple Grade 2-level text and just 28% could perform basic division.
These findings confirm that being in school does not guarantee learning. Thus, even as India approaches near-universal access, the goal of universal quality education remains elusive.
The AI Readiness Challenge: Monitoring Enrolment and Learning
Artificial Intelligence (AI) offers new tools to track every child’s enrolment, attendance, and progress in real time. Integration of AI with UDISEPlus could help identify dropouts, migration patterns, and learning gaps early.
However, India’s readiness for AI integration is limited. According to NSSO and UDISEPlus data, only 60% of government schools have a functional computer and internet connection (59%). Among poor and marginalized families, access to digital devices remains very low.
Without bridging this digital divide, AI-based interventions risk deepening inequality rather than resolving it. Therefore, India’s first priority must be universal digital infrastructure in all schools — only then can AI truly support monitoring and improvement.
Concluding Observations
India’s journey toward universal school education is at a critical juncture. Enrolment declines may partly reflect demographic change, but they also expose weaknesses in data quality and learning outcomes.
Unless addressed promptly, India risks achieving demographic universalization (fewer children) without educational universalization (all children learning).
To avoid this, India must:
1. Ensure accurate, AI-enabled tracking of every student;
2. Bridge the digital divide in schools and homes;
3. Shift focus from enrolment to learning outcomes; and
4. Integrate UDISEPlus, NAS, and ASER insights into real-time policy action.
Only by uniting access, equity, and quality can India truly fulfill the promise of Education for All envisioned in NEP 2020.
Suggested Readings
UDISEPlus Official Portal – Ministry of Education
National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 – Government of India
Sample Registration System (SRS) Reports – Registrar General of India
National Achievement Survey (NAS) 2021 – NCERT
ASER 2023 – Pratham India
From Classrooms to Policy: Analysing UDISE+ 2024–25 Data – Education for All in India
AI in Education: Managing Student Records through SDMS – Education for All in India
Status of Literacy in India: A Historical Perspective – Education for All in India
