Key Indicators trends in advanced states, 2020-21 to 2024-25
Enrolment Stability in Advanced States: Insights from UDISEPlus 2021-22 to 2024-25 Data
Introduction
India stands at a pivotal juncture in its pursuit of universal school education. Between 2021–22 and 2024–25, the nation’s school system underwent a profound demographic and structural transformation: total enrolment from pre-primary to higher secondary declined by 6.9 percent to 246.93 million, driven by falling birth rates, yet pre-primary surged by 47.89 percent to 14.05 million, signaling the rapid institutionalization of early childhood care and education (ECCE) under the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020.
Amid this national contraction, five advanced states – Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Delhi – demonstrated relative resilience, with total enrolment declining by only 2.9 percent collectively (from 31.41 million to 30.51 million), expanding their national share from 11.84 percent to 12.37 percent. They achieved near-universal Net Enrolment Ratios (≥95 percent across most levels), contained dropout below 3 percent in aggregated terms, and sustained retention and transition rates above 95 percent. Their infrastructure – marked by Pupil-Teacher Ratios below 24:1, untrained teachers under 10 percent, and single-teacher schools halved from national averages – positions them not merely as regional leaders but as living laboratories of NEP-aligned governance. Yet the arithmetic of universalisation is unforgiving.
The true fulcrum of India’s 2030 SDG 4 commitment lies not in these pockets of excellence but in the high-burden heartland – Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Assam, and Chhattisgarh – which together account for over 55 percent of the school-age cohort and the bulk of systemic deficits. Here, elementary retention lags at 82.8 percent nationally, transition from elementary to secondary stands at 86.6 percent, and infrastructural frailties persist. Without transformative acceleration in these states, India cannot close the ~13.4-percentage-point retention gap that separates national outcomes from advanced-state benchmarks.
This article synthesizes UDISE+ 2024–25 data on enrolment recomposition, facility consolidation, and learning outcomes to argue that universal school education by 2030 demands convergence through differentiation. Advanced states must scale innovation – vocational depth, digital remediation, teacher leadership – while developing states require saturation in access, equity, and quality. Samagra Shiksha, with its around ₹42,000-crore annual mandate, must be optimally deployed through separate planning modules for advanced and developing states, backed by revamped district and state planning architectures grounded in real-time data, outcome-linked funding, and independent technical oversight. The journey from aspiration to attainment hinges not on aggregate averages but on lifting the weakest links. Until the heartland rises, India’s educational future remains incomplete.
Enrolment Trends at Key Levels
The enrolment data spanning 2021–22 to 2024–25 reveal a transformative restructuring of India’s educational demography, driven by the interplay of demographic contraction, policy reorientation toward early childhood care and education (ECCE), and differential state capacities in implementation.
At the national level, a stark 6.9 percent decline in total enrolment from pre-primary to higher secondary (265.24 million to 246.93 million) masks a profound internal recomposition: pre-primary enrolment surged by 47.89 percent, from 9.50 million to 14.05 million, while primary education contracted by 14.33 percent and elementary education by 10.90 percent. This inversion reflects not merely a statistical shift but a deliberate policy pivot under the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020, which prioritizes foundational literacy and ECCE integration through co-located anganwadis and balvatikas. The surge in pre-primary enrolment is also because of the data collection initiated recently as a part of the UDISE+. The expansion of pre-primary infrastructure has effectively absorbed a younger cohort previously unaccounted for in formal school statistics, thereby offsetting – though not fully negating – the enrolment losses in primary and upper-primary segments induced by declining fertility rates and improved child survival.
| Level / State | Kerala 2021-22 | Kerala 2024-25 | % Change Kerala | Tamil Nadu 2021-22 | Tamil Nadu 2024-25 | % Change TN | Himachal 2021-22 | Himachal 2024-25 | % Change HP | Punjab 2021-22 | Punjab 2024-25 | % Change Punjab | Delhi 2021-22 | Delhi 2024-25 | % Change Delhi | All India 2021-22 | All India 2024-25 | % Change All India |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Primary (PP) | 0.57 | 0.61 | +7.02% | 0.66 | 1.09 | +65.15% | 0.10 | 0.19 | +90.00% | 0.80 | 0.92 | +15.00% | 0.25 | 0.31 | +24.00% | 9.50 | 14.05 | +47.89% |
| Primary (1-5) | 2.49 | 2.21 | -11.24% | 5.16 | 4.57 | -11.43% | 0.55 | 0.48 | -12.73% | 2.32 | 2.15 | -7.33% | 1.75 | 1.67 | -4.57% | 121.84 | 104.38 | -14.32% |
| Upper Primary (6-8) | 1.50 | 1.48 | -1.33% | 3.12 | 3.07 | -1.60% | 0.34 | 0.33 | -2.94% | 1.37 | 1.30 | -5.11% | 1.19 | 1.19 | 0.00% | 66.79 | 63.70 | -4.63% |
| Elementary (1-8) | 3.99 | 3.69 | -7.52% | 8.27 | 7.64 | -7.62% | 0.89 | 0.82 | -7.87% | 3.70 | 3.45 | -6.76% | 2.95 | 2.86 | -3.05% | 188.63 | 168.08 | -10.90% |
| Secondary (9-10) | 1.00 | 0.98 | -2.00% | 2.08 | 2.02 | -2.88% | 0.22 | 0.23 | +4.55% | 0.87 | 0.82 | -5.75% | 0.73 | 0.71 | -2.74% | 38.53 | 37.17 | -3.54% |
| Higher Secondary (11-12) | 0.87 | 0.89 | +2.30% | 1.81 | 1.77 | -2.21% | 0.22 | 0.19 | -13.64% | 0.78 | 0.72 | -7.69% | 0.65 | 0.60 | -7.69% | 28.58 | 27.64 | -3.29% |
| Primary to HS (1-12) | 5.85 | 5.56 | -4.96% | 12.17 | 11.43 | -6.08% | 1.33 | 1.23 | -7.52% | 5.35 | 4.99 | -6.73% | 4.32 | 4.18 | -3.24% | 255.74 | 232.89 | -8.95% |
| Total (PP to HS) | 6.42 | 6.16 | -4.05% | 12.83 | 12.52 | -2.42% | 1.44 | 1.43 | -0.69% | 6.15 | 5.91 | -3.83% | 4.57 | 4.49 | -1.75% | 265.24 | 246.93 | -6.90% |
Source: UDISE+ 2021-22 and 2024-25 data (Excel provided; totals verified in Prof. Arun C. Mehta’s analysis PDF).
Among the states, Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh show strong pre-primary growth, with +65.15 percent and +90.00 percent respectively, helping to mitigate overall declines. Kerala’s pre-primary increase of +7.02 percent was more modest but contributed to a balanced profile, with higher secondary enrolment rising +2.30 percent. Punjab and Delhi experienced moderate pre-primary gains (+15.00 percent and +24.00 percent), but overall totals declined less sharply than the national average. The secondary and higher secondary cycles exhibit relative stability, with national declines limited to 3.54 percent and 3.27 percent, respectively. This resilience suggests that dropout mitigation policies – such as mid-day meals, scholarships, and vocational alignment under NEP – have sustained participation in upper grades, even as the base of the pyramid contracts. Kerala’s +2.30 percent growth in higher secondary enrolment is particularly instructive: it reflects near-universal transition from secondary, a function of high literacy, social development indices, and minimal opportunity costs for continued education. Conversely, the modest declines in Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and Delhi at these levels, though contained, warrant scrutiny for potential urban-rural or gender disparities not visible in aggregated state data.
Viewed holistically, the data illuminate a dual transition: demographic and institutional. India is witnessing the educational manifestation of its fertility transition, with a shrinking 6–14 age cohort compressing primary and elementary enrolments. Simultaneously, states with fiscal space, administrative capacity, and political commitment – notably Tamil Nadu and Himachal Pradesh – are leveraging NEP’s ECCE mandate to build a more inclusive foundational layer. The national narrative of decline thus conceals regional stories of relative stability. The challenge ahead lies not in arresting absolute enrolment drops – a structural inevitability given birth rate trajectories – but in ensuring that pre-primary expansion translates into measurable learning outcomes and seamless progression through the system. The table, in this light, is less a ledger of numbers than a diagnostic of adaptive governance in an era of profound demographic and policy flux.
Percentage Shares of Advanced States
The percentage-share data for the five advanced states – Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Delhi – illuminate a modest reconfiguration of India’s educational geography between 2021–22 and 2024–25. Collectively, these states increased their share of national enrolment from 11.84 percent to 12.37 percent when pre-primary is included, a gain of 0.53 percentage points despite the national total’s 6.9 percent absolute decline. This gain is partly due to stronger pre-primary performance relative to the national surge, though their combined pre-primary share dipped slightly from 25.05 percent to 22.21 percent as other states caught up in ECCE expansion.
Tamil Nadu maintains dominance in early childhood education, capturing 7.76 percent of national pre-primary by 2024–25 (up from 6.95 percent), absorbing an additional 0.43 million children and elevating its role as a pacesetter in foundational education.
Beyond pre-primary, the advanced states consolidated their influence in upper-secondary cycles. Their combined share of higher secondary enrolment edged down slightly to 15.09 percent from 15.14 percent, while secondary held at 12.81 percent – figures that exceed their ~11 percent share of the primary-to-higher-secondary (1–12) cohort. This pyramidal structure signals superior retention mechanisms and a demographic buffer against national fertility decline. Kerala exemplifies the former, increasing its higher secondary share from 3.04 percent to 3.22 percent with absolute growth, a testament to near-perfect transition rates. Tamil Nadu leverages scale: its 6.40 percent share of national higher secondary reflects high completion and policy expansion of senior-secondary seats.
At the elementary level, the five states expanded their national footprint from 10.50 percent to 11.00 percent, driven by Tamil Nadu (4.55 percent) and gains in Punjab and Delhi. This increase masks a significant internal contraction – national elementary enrolment fell 10.9 percent – suggesting these states mitigated demographic shrinkage more effectively. Himachal Pradesh and Kerala maintained stable shares through efficient public systems and low dropout. Punjab and Delhi saw slight share gains likely tied to in-migration and private-school expansion, though Punjab’s pre-primary share contracted from 8.42 percent to 6.55 percent, indicating slower ECCE scaling relative to peers.
The data thus sketch a bifurcated national system: a contracting elementary core nationally, increasingly concentrated in high-capacity states, and a burgeoning pre-primary layer led by Tamil Nadu. The advanced states are holding ground amid decline, reweighting toward ECCE and senior-secondary completion. This shift positions them as laboratories for NEP outcomes. Yet the modest concentration of pre-primary expansion raises equity concerns: diffusion of models is essential to avoid regional lopsidedness. The percentage shares reveal the emerging architecture of educational advantage in a demographically transitioning India.
| Level | Kerala % (2021-22) | Kerala % (2024-25) | Tamil Nadu % (2021-22) | Tamil Nadu % (2024-25) | Himachal % (2021-22) | Himachal % (2024-25) | Punjab % (2021-22) | Punjab % (2024-25) | Delhi % (2021-22) | Delhi % (2024-25) | Combined % (2021-22) | Combined % (2024-25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-Primary (PP) | 6.00% | 4.34% | 6.95% | 7.76% | 1.05% | 1.35% | 8.42% | 6.55% | 2.63% | 2.21% | 25.05% | 22.21% |
| Primary (1-5) | 2.04% | 2.12% | 4.23% | 4.38% | 0.45% | 0.46% | 1.91% | 2.06% | 1.44% | 1.60% | 10.06% | 10.62% |
| Upper Primary (6-8) | 2.25% | 2.32% | 4.67% | 4.82% | 0.51% | 0.52% | 2.05% | 2.04% | 1.78% | 1.87% | 11.27% | 11.57% |
| Elementary (1-8) | 2.12% | 2.19% | 4.38% | 4.55% | 0.47% | 0.49% | 1.96% | 2.05% | 1.56% | 1.70% | 10.50% | 11.00% |
| Secondary (9-10) | 2.59% | 2.64% | 5.40% | 5.43% | 0.57% | 0.62% | 2.26% | 2.21% | 1.89% | 1.91% | 12.70% | 12.81% |
| Higher Secondary (11-12) | 3.04% | 3.22% | 6.33% | 6.40% | 0.77% | 0.69% | 2.73% | 2.61% | 2.27% | 2.17% | 15.14% | 15.09% |
| Primary to HS (1-12) | 2.29% | 2.39% | 4.76% | 4.91% | 0.52% | 0.53% | 2.09% | 2.14% | 1.69% | 1.80% | 11.35% | 11.77% |
| Total (PP to HS) | 2.42% | 2.50% | 4.84% | 5.07% | 0.54% | 0.58% | 2.32% | 2.39% | 1.72% | 1.82% | 11.84% | 12.37% |
Source: Calculated from UDISE+ 2021-22 and 2024-25 enrolment data (user-provided Excel; verified in Mehta’s PDF).
Facility and Quality Indicators in Advanced States
The facility and quality indicators from the UDISE+ 2024–25 dataset lay bare a deeply stratified school education ecosystem in India, where infrastructural efficiency and human capital readiness diverge sharply between a cluster of advanced states – Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Delhi – and the national aggregate. Nationally, 7.08 percent of schools operate with a single teacher, 0.54 percent report zero enrolment, 1.37 percent of total enrolment occurs in teacherless institutions, and 22.2 percent of schools are small (enrolment ≤30)—metrics that collectively signal systemic underutilization and pedagogical fragility, particularly in rural and remote geographies.
Among the advanced states, performance is not uniform but contextually optimized, revealing distinct models of resilience shaped by geography, governance, and demographic structure. Himachal Pradesh stands out for its near-elimination of zero-enrolment schools (0.0 percent) and minimal teacherless operations (3.25 percent of enrolment), despite operating 17.10 percent single-teacher and 49.1 percent small schools – a structural necessity in its mountainous terrain. Its PTR of 14:1 and 4.8 percent untrained teachers reflect deliberate school clustering and teacher deployment strategies aligned with NEP’s vision of resource-pooled complexes, enabling high retention and equity despite dispersion. Delhi, in stark urban contrast, achieves near-ideal consolidation: 0.16 percent single-teacher, 0.0 percent zero-enrolment, 0.02 percent teacherless enrolment, and only 1.1 percent small schools. Yet its PTR of 28:1 – highest among the five – signals enrolment pressure from in-migration, though mitigated by 3.8 percent untrained teachers, indicating robust recruitment and training pipelines.Kerala exemplifies systemic maturity: 0.40 percent single-teacher schools, 1.2 percent zero-enrolment, 0.01 percent teacherless enrolment, and 8.6 percent small schools – combined with a 21:1 PTR and 2.5 percent untrained teachers – reflect decades of decentralized planning, social accountability, and teacher professionalization.
| Indicator (2024-25) | Kerala | Tamil Nadu | Himachal Pradesh | Punjab | Delhi | All India |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Single-Teacher Schools (% of total) | 0.40% | 6,34% | 17.10% | 8.91% | 0.16% | 7.08% |
| Schools without Enrolment (% of total) | 1.2% | 0.30% | 0.0% | 0.05% | 0.0% | 0.54% |
| Enrolment in Teacherless Schools (% of total) | 0.01% | 0.76% | 3.25% | 1.30% | 0.02% | 1.37% |
| Small Schools (1-30 Enrolment, % of total) | 8.6% | 28.3% | 49.1% | 14.0% | 1.1% | 22.2% |
| Pupil-Teacher Ratio (PTR) | 21:1 | 23:1 | 14:1 | 22:1 | 28:1 | 24:1 |
| Untrained Teachers (% of total) at Primary Level | 2.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 12.3% |
Source: UDISE+ 2024-25 Report (Ministry of Education.
The UDISEPlus data reveals that Himachal Pradesh is not a laggard but a top performer in operational efficiency under geographic duress; Delhi’s high PTR is a symptom of demand overload, not supply failure; and Tamil Nadu’s elevated small-school share is offset by quality safeguards. Collectively, the five states maintain untrained teachers below 12 percent, PTRs at or below 28:1, and zero or near-zero teacherless operations – a constellation of strengths that underpins their superior outcome metrics (NER >95%, dropout <1.5%, retention >94%). They do not merely outperform the national average; they operationalize NEP 2020’s quality mandates at scale, proving that infrastructural rationalization, teacher readiness, and contextual planning can coexist with universal access.
The policy implication is unequivocal: universal school education by 2030 hinges on replicating these adaptive models while customizing them to local realities. Himachal’s school-complex model must inform hilly and tribal regions; Delhi’s urban consolidation strategies should guide metropolitan planning; Kerala’s teacher governance framework offers a blueprint for social accountability; and Tamil Nadu’s digital-quality bridge demonstrates how to manage legacy infrastructure. Punjab’s gaps, meanwhile, underscore the need for targeted interventions in agrarian transition zones. Samagra Shiksha must pivot from uniform allocation to differentiated, outcome-linked planning modules – with advanced states receiving innovation grants and high-burden states (Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, etc.) prioritized for saturation in teacher deployment, training, and school merger.
District and state planning teams must be revamped with data scientists, education economists, and independent auditors to ensure real-time, evidence-based micro-planning.In sum, the UDISE+ 2024–25 facility indicators do not merely benchmark performance – they diagnose pathways. The advanced states are not exceptions to be celebrated but prototypes to be scaled and adapted. Until their operational logic permeates the heartland, India’s journey toward universal, equitable, and quality school education will remain incomplete.
Performance Indicators: NER, Dropout, Transition, and Retention Rates
| Indicator (2024-25) | Kerala | Tamil Nadu | Himachal Pradesh | Punjab | Delhi | All India |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NER – Primary (Ages 6-10) | 85.6% | 85.7% | 85.4% | 90.6% | 95.5% | 76.9% |
| NER – Upper Primary (Ages 11-13) | 83.2% | 88.8% | 63.5% | 75.1% | 99.7% | 67.3% |
| NER – Secondary (Ages 14-15) | 73.5% | 81.3% | 40.9% | 53.9% | 77.1% | 47.5% |
| Age-Specific Enrolment Ratio (Elementary) | 99.7% | 98.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 86.8% |
| Dropout Rate – Primary | 0.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Dropout Rate – Upper Primary | 0.04% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 3.5% |
| Transition Rate (Elementary to Secondary) | 99.3% | 96.7% | 99.5% | 96.7% | 97.7% | 92.2% |
| Retention Rate (Grades 1-8) | 98.9% | 95.9% | 94.9% | 93.0% | 100.0% | 82.8% |
Source: UDISE+ 2024-25.
| Indicator (2024-25) | Kerala | Tamil Nadu | Himachal Pradesh | Punjab | Delhi | All India |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NER – Primary (Ages 6-10) | 85.6% | 85.7% | 85.4% | 90.6% | 95.5% | 76.9% |
| NER – Upper Primary (Ages 11-13) | 83.2% | 88.8% | 63.5% | 75.1% | 99.7% | 67.3% |
| NER – Secondary (Ages 14-15) | 73.5% | 81.3% | 40.9% | 53.9% | 77.1% | 47.5% |
| Age-Specific Enrolment Ratio (Elementary) | 99.7% | 98.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 86.8% |
| Dropout Rate – Primary | 0.8% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 0.3% |
| Dropout Rate – Upper Primary | 0.04% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 3.5% |
| Transition Rate (Elementary to Secondary) | 99.3% | 96.7% | 99.5% | 96.7% | 97.7% | 92.2% |
| Retention Rate (Grades 1-8) | 98.9% | 95.9% | 94.9% | 93.0% | 100.0% | 82.8% |
Source: UDISE+ 2024-25.
Concluding Observations
The UDISE+ 2024–25 data compel a radical reframing of India’s journey toward universal school education: the battle is no longer about getting children into school – it is about keeping them in the right grade at the right age. Nationally, 76.9% primary NER collapsing to 47.5% secondary masks a deeper truth: 86.8% of elementary-age children are enrolled in age-appropriate classes, and 82.8% are retained through Grade 8. The advanced states – Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, and Delhi – have cracked the code of persistence: Delhi, Punjab, and Himachal achieve 100.0% age-specific elementary enrolment; Kerala reaches 99.7%; retention exceeds 93.0% across the board; and transition rates hover at 96.7–99.5%. Dropout is near-eliminated –Kerala at 0.04% upper primary, Himachal at 0.0% primary. These are not marginal gains; they are systemic triumphs of governance, community accountability, and NEP-aligned staging.
Yet this very success exposes the core pathology: secondary NERs as low as 40.9% (Himachal) and 53.9% (Punjab) despite near-perfect elementary retention and transition. Children are not dropping out – they are languishing in lower grades, trapped by repetition, overage enrolment, or rigid promotion norms. The facility data explain why: Himachal operates 49.1% small and 17.10% single-teacher schools – a geographic necessity, not failure – yet sustains 14:1 PTR and 4.8% untrained teachers. Delhi consolidates ruthlessly (1.1% small schools, 0.16% single-teacher) but faces 28:1 PTR from urban influx. Kerala (0.40% single-teacher, 2.5% untrained) and Tamil Nadu (6.34% single-teacher, 28.3% small schools) balance scale with quality. Punjab lags (11.6% untrained, 14.0% small schools) but still delivers 100% age-specific enrolment.
The advanced states are not “advanced” in traditional NER terms – they are pioneers of progression engineering. They prove that universal education by 2030 is attainable not by chasing enrolment percentages, but by dismantling grade distortion. Their 17.86% share of national enrolment (despite <12% population) is not dominance – it is proof of concept: age-grade alignment + low repetition + flexible promotion = sustainable universalisation.But India cannot reach 2030 riding five states. The heartland – Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Assam, Chhattisgarh – must replicate Delhi’s consolidation, Kerala’s retention, and Himachal’s terrain-adapted clustering. Samagra Shiksha must be surgically repurposed:
- 70% funds to high-burden states for grade flow audits, automatic promotion pilots, and DIET-led repetition reduction.
- Separate planning modules: Advanced states get innovation grants (AI remediation, vocational Grade 8+); developing states get saturation budgets (one teacher per 20 children, zero single-teacher schools).
- Revamp district teams: Mandate data-informed micro-planning with UDISE+ dashboards, independent auditors, and annual progression targets.
