Real Life Data: Statement II

Table 12: Growth in School Enrolment
Table 13: Share of Girls Enrolment
Table 14: Gross Enrolment Ratio
Table 15: Enrolment and Attendance Ratio
Table 16: Retention Rate
Table 17: Repetition Rates in Primary Grades
Table 18: Rates of Efficiency
Table 19: Transition Rates at the All India Level
Table 20: State-specific Transition Rates
Table 21: Out of School Children
Table 22: Likely Year of Achievement of UPE/UEE
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Table 12: Growth in School Enrolment (In Million)

	Primary			Upper Primary
Year	Boys	Girls	Total	Boys	Girls	Total
1950-51	13.8	5.4	19.2	2.6	0.5	3.1
1960-61	23.6	11.4	35.0	5.1	1.6	6.7
1970-71	35.7	21.3	57.0	9.4	3.9	13.3
1980-81	45.3	28.5	73.8	13.9	6.8	20.7
1990-91	57.0	40.4	97.4	21.5	12.5	34.0
1998-99*	62.7	48.2	110.9	24.0	16.3	40.3
Growth Rate (%)	1.2	2.2	1.6	1.4	3.4	2.2

* Provisional, Source  : MHRD (2000a). The author computed growth rates (1990-98).

Table 13 : Share of Girls Enrolment at the Primary and Upper  Primary    Levels of Education, All India : 1950-51 to 1998-99 (In Percentage)

Year	Primary	Upper Primary
1950-51	28.13	16.13
1960-61	32.57	24.32
1970-71	37.37	29.32
1980-81	38.62	32.85
1990-91	41.48	36.76
1998-99*	43.50	40.50

* Provisional, Source : MHRD (2000a).

Table 14: Gross Enrolment Ratio, All India Level: 1950-51 to 1998-99

Year	Primary		Upper Primary
	Boys	Girls	Boys	Girls
1950-51	60.6	24.8	20.6	4.6
1960-61	82.6	41.4	33.2	11.3
1970-71	95.5	60.5	46.5	20.8
1980-81	95.8	64.1	54.3	28.6
1990-91	114.0	85.5	76.6	47.0
1998-99*	100.9	82.9	65.3	49.1

* Provisional,  Source: MHRD (2000a).

Table 15: State-specific Enrolment and Attendance Ratio

	RATIO, 1997-98		ATTENDANCE RATIO, 1995-96
	PRIMARY		GROSS		NET		AGE-SPECIFIC
STATE	GER	NER	P	UP	P	UP	6-10	11-13
Andhra Pradesh	90	69	86	56	69	41	75	60
Arunachal Pradesh	97	69	90	65	69	29	65	82
Assam	109	98	91	73	98	43	73	80
Bihar	76	76	54	51	76	33	43	58
Goa	86	61	118	99	61	62	99	89
Gujarat	118	86	95	67	86	52	80	77
Haryana	84	73	106	86	73	52	83	87
Himachal Pradesh	90	68	118	97	68	54	91	94
J & K	67	55	88	81	55	53	69	82
Karnataka	113	89	87	61	89	50	75	70
Kerala	90	72	109	97	72	76	97	97
Madhya Pradesh	102	88	84	62	88	35	64	67
Maharashtra	113	84	106	80	84	55	88	85
Manipur	86	68	91	93	68	43	69	87
Megahalaya	93	50	111	86	50	25	69	94
Mizoram	114	73	102	108	73	39	71	88
Nagaland	94	59	105	107	59	40	71	85
Orissa	91	70	75	59	70	45	63	66
Punjab	82	71	100	86	71	59	85	86
Rajasthan	97	72	74	56	72	35	58	64
Sikkim	113	61	118	75	61	33	77	90
Tamil Nadu	109	85	98	80	85	61	91	74
Tripura	88	80	110	82	80	40	81	84
Uttar Pradesh	62	47	80	54	47	33	61	66
West Bengal	92	56	94	63	56	33	67	74
A & N Islands	87	64	108	116	64	73	94	94
Chandigarh	80	60	142	57	60	45	87	95
D & N Haveli	96	70	98	61	70	55	79	55
Daman & Diu	99	74	138	69	74	57	100	76
Delhi	89	68	107	93	68	70	84	95
Lakshadweep	105	73	138	96	73	69	97	98
Pondicherry	94	74	86	107	74	84	98	93
All India	90	71	85	65	71	43	69	72

P : Primary, UP: Upper Primary, GER: Gross Enrolment Ratio and NER: Net Enrolment Ratio, Source: Thakur and Mehta (1999) and NSSO (1998).

Table 16: Retention Rate at All India Level, 1964-65 to 1998-99 (Percentage)

Year                                        Class V                                  Class VIII

Total                  Girls                     Total                           Girls

1964-65                        37.10                  32.00                         —                                  —

1974-75                        36.80                  33.30                     21.30                             16.30

1984-85                        50.38                  47.54                     35.65                             29.60

1990-91                        61.04                  56.41                     39.10                             34.87

1998-99*                     60.26               58.68               43.18                           39.91

*  Provisional, Source:  Varghese and Mehta (1999a) and MHRD (2000a).

Table 17: Repetition Rate in Primary Grades, 1993-94

	GRADES
	I	II	III	IV	V
Boys	7.6	5.5	7.3	5.8	5.9
Girls	7.9	5.8	7.3	5.8	5.9
Total	7.7	5.7	7.3	5.8	5.9

Source: Thakur and Mehta (1999).

Table 18: Rates of Efficiency (1997-98)

State & UT	Input/Output Ratio			Years Input per Graduate
	Boys	Girls	Total	Boys	Girls	Total
Andhra Pradesh	0.68	0.63	0.68	7.3	7.9	7.6
Arunachal Pradesh	0.61	0.60	0.61	8.2	8.4	8.3
Assam	0.87	0.61	0.75	5.8	8.2	6.7
Bihar	0.60	0.51	0.57	8.3	9.8	8.8
Goa	0.99	0.94	0.96	5.1	5.3	5.2
Gujarat	0.68	0.70	0.69	7.4	7.1	7.3
Haryana	0.84	0.80	0.82	6.0	6.3	6.1
Himachal Pradesh	0.73	0.90	0.81	6.8	5.6	6.2
J & Kashmir	0.82	0.78	0.80	6.1	6.4	6.2
Karnataka	0.72	0.66	0.69	6.9	7.6	7.2
Kerala	1.00	1.00	1.00	4.7	4.8	4.7
Madhya Pradesh	0.91	0.80	0.86	5.5	6.2	5.8
Maharashtra	0.85	0.82	0.83	5.9	6.1	6
Manipur	0.97	0.98	0.97	5.2	5.1	5.1
Meghalaya	0.56	0.51	0.54	8.9	9.8	9.3
Mizoram	0.79	0.81	0.80	6.2	6.4	6.3
Nagaland	0.59	0.58	0.59	8.4	8.6	8.5
Orissa	0.67	0.61	0.64	7.5	8.2	7.8
Punjab	0.93	0.89	0.91	5.4	5.6	5.5
Rajasthan	0.81	0.67	0.76	6.2	7.5	6.6
Sikkim	0.59	0.50	0.54	8.5	10	9.2
Tamil Nadu	0.81	0.82	0.81	6.2	6.1	6.2
Tripura	0.65	0.68	0.66	7.7	7.4	7.6
Uttar Pradesh	0.37	0.24	0.32	13.4	21.2	15.7
West Bengal	0.41	0.29	0.35	12.2	17.3	14.3
A & N Islands	0.98	0.91	0.94	5.1	5.5	5.3
Chandigarh	–	–	–	3.8	3.8	3.8
D & N Haveli	0.84	0.78	0.82	6	6.4	6.1
Daman & Diu	0.92	0.90	0.91	5.4	5.6	5.5
Delhi	–	–	–	4.5	3.8	4.1
Lakshadweep	0.82	0.92	0.87	6.1	5.4	5.8
Pondicherry	–	–	–	4.6	4.5	4.5
INDIA	0.70	0.63	0.67	7.2	8.0	7.5

Source:  Thakur and Mehta (1999).

Table 19: Transition Rate (%), All India, 1970-71 to 1997-98

Year	Transition Rate
	Boys	Girls	Total	Boys/Girls Differential
1970-71	86.80	74.08	82.56	12.72
1975-76	87.99	78.34	84.58	9.65
1980-81	92.11	81.77	88.35	10.34
1985-86	90.79	82.01	87.45	8.78
1990-91	95.20	93.22	94.42	1.98
1991-92	87.00	83.00	85.00	4.00
1997-98*	89.00	91.00	86.00	(2.00)

* Provisional,   Source: Varghese and Mehta (1999a). For years 1991-92 & 1997-98 calculated     by the author.

Table 20: State-specific Transition Rates (Grade IV/V to V/VI)

State & UT		1991-92			1997-98
	Boys	Girls	Total	Boys	Girls	Total
Andhra	85	79	82	95	93	89
Arunachal	76	73	75	85	83	91
Assam	102	87	96	88	88	92
Bihar	78	69	75	94	95	86
Goa	88	82	85	78	79	105
Gujarat	73	74	74	85	84	90
Haryana	78	68	74	72	77	109
Himachal	92	88	90	83	81	92
J&K	140	117	130	103	98	73
Karnataka	76	76	76	94	95	88
Kerala	96	96	96	96	95	102
M.P	81	64	75	91	91	99
Maharashtra	97	89	93	97	97	86
Manipur	89	86	88	76	78	104
Meghalaya	89	89	89	88	89	78
Mizoram	87	85	86	90	91	100
Nagaland	72	78	75	77	79	81
Orissa	83	87	84	96	96	100
Punjab	95	90	93	93	93	88
Rajasthan	98	86	95	97	96	92
Sikkim	56	56	56	84	84	103
Tamil Nadu	82	74	79	88	88	106
Tripura	78	73	76	73	75	73
Uttar Pradesh	91	74	85	92	92	67
West Bengal	102	116	109	67	77	46
A&N Islands	81	76	79	82	83	114
Chandigarh	124	121	122	112	110	84
D&N Haveli	57	64	59	85	77	102
Daman & Diu	75	78	76	90	95	107
Delhi	111	94	103	83	84	81
Lakshadweep	68	77	72	86	82	116
Pondicherry	102	99	101	95	95	87

Source: Calculated by the author based on information given in MHRD publications.

Table 21: Out-of-School Children (1998-99) and Requirement of Additional Enrolment in 2007-8 to Achieve UPE  (In thousand)

State	Out-of-School Children, 1998-99			Net Additional Enrolment (Classes I-V) Requirements, 2007-8
	Total	Girls	Boys	Total	Girls	Boys
Andhra	2340	1252	1090	1129	727	406
Arunachal	24	15	9	63	40	23
Assam*	–	–	–	120	225	-104
Bihar*	2955	2477	478	2231	2432	-192
Goa	87	46	41	231	131	100
Gujarat	960	671	289	1039	789	247
Haryana	689	309	380	1100	502	597
Himachal	229	127	101	536	337	202
J&K	384	255	128	629	451	184
Karnataka	937	538	399	681	388	294
Kerala	918	461	456	1037	505	531
M.P*	–	–	–	1413	1230	167
Maharashtra	1662	860	802	2838	1465	1371
Manipur	76	47	30	187	118	71
Meghalaya	101	53	48	214	126	89
Mizoram	20	12	8	66	39	27
Nagaland	59	29	29	137	75	62
Orissa	1161	830	329	1155	888	268
Punjab	748	324	423	1142	486	656
Rajasthan	1754	1498	257	2465	2110	366
Sikkim	17	9	8	47	26	19
Tamil Nadu	957	499	458	311	178	134
Tripura*	–	–	–	95	85	9
U.P	11477	6566	4910	14264	8761	5548
West Bengal	4161	2220	1941	5211	2889	2312
A&N Islands	15	6	9	32	14	17
Chandigarh	50	22	28	113	54	59
D&N Haveli	3	3	0	12	8	3
Daman & Diu	3	2	1	13	8	5
Delhi	517	248	268	1477	788	689
Lakshadweep	2	1	1	4	3	2
Pondicherry	37	20	17	116	70	45
India	33063	20340	12726	40108	25949	13387
Note: * Either the enrolment data and projected population or estimates of    overage/underage children in these states are not reliable

Source: Computed by the author based on the information given in MHRD (2000a)

and NCERT (1998).

Table 22: Likely Year of Achievement of Goals of   UPE/UEE

                                       (Based on Trend Analysis)

State		Primary                                                        Middle
Boys	Girls                        Boys		Girls
Andhra Pradesh 2004/05 ** ** *   Bihar             *                * * * Gujarat 1995/96 2006/07 2004/05 * Haryana ** ** ** * Karnataka 1996/97 1998/99 *** ** Kerala _ _ 1999/2000 1999/2000 Madhya Pradesh 2002/03 ** * * Maharashtra 2000/01 ** ** * Orissa 2004/05 * ** * Punjab *** 2008/09 * * Rajasthan ** * ** * Tamil Nadu++ Achieved Achieved 1994/95 1997/98 Uttar Pradesh 2007/08 * * * West Bengal 2000/01 2007/08 2008/09 2007/08 All India@ 2004/05 2007/08 2007/08 *

* Not in sight

** Sometime after the year 2008/09

*** Just after the year 2008/09

+ Estimates of over-age/under-age not available

++ Tamil Nadu perhaps is the only state which might have already achieved goal of UPE.

Note : @ Disaggregated projections at the state level are supposed to produce more reliable projections than at the all-India level. Likely years are based on the refined enrolment ratios computed on the basis of 23.71 and 15.78 per cent grossness at primary and upper primary levels. The projections are subject to change when more reliable state-specific estimates of overage and underage children are available.

Source: Mehta, 1998.