The Imperative of School Education Efficiency for India’s Higher Education Aspirations

Reviewing NEP 2020’s Implementation Hurdles


Prof. Arun C. Mehta
Formerly Professor & Head, Department of EMIS, NIEPA, New Delhi
Education for All in India – https://educationforallinindia.com
Published: November 19, 2025

Higher Education Trends Dashboard – GER growth from 28.4% to 50% by 2035, required additional enrolment 70–86 million, school retention pipeline only 47.2%, state-wise secondary GERFigure: Higher Education Trends Dashboard (Education for All in India, November 2025)


Abstract

India’s National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 promised a paradigm shift toward equitable and inclusive education, with a flagship target of achieving 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in higher education by 2035. Yet, as recent analyses reveal, the policy’s rollout has been marred by systemic bottlenecks, particularly in curriculum adaptation, faculty preparedness, and infrastructural gaps. This review article examines the critical insights from The CSR Journal’s exposé on NEP’s struggles (The CSR Journal, 2025), juxtaposing them against the foundational role of school education efficiency outlined in our recent publication (Mehta, 2025a). Drawing on empirical data from UDISE+ 2024–25 and AISHE 2021–22, it underscores that higher education expansion remains illusory without bolstering retention from Grade 1 to 12 and transitions from secondary to higher secondary levels.

Key Diagnostics – At a Glance

The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 sets an ambitious target of achieving 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio (GER) in higher education by 2035, up from 28.4% in 2024–25. This requires an average annual increase of approximately 1.5 percentage points over the next 11 years — a steep but not impossible trajectory if foundational bottlenecks are systematically removed.

The data in Table 1 reveals that the binding constraint is not higher education itself, but the pipeline feeding into it. As of 2024–25, only 58.4% of the relevant age cohort is enrolled in higher secondary (Classes XI–XII), and the transition rate from Grade X to XI stands at a modest 75.1%. With a secondary dropout rate of 11.5% and an overall retention rate from Grade I to XII of just 47.2%, nearly half the cohort is lost before reaching the gateway to higher education.

To reach 50% GER in higher education by 2035, India effectively needs ~85% higher-secondary GER and ~95% transition from Grade X to XI by that year (as targeted). This implies that the real challenge lies in the school system rather than in expanding university seats alone. Even if India dramatically increases higher-education capacity (through HEIs, ODL, and multidisciplinary institutions as envisaged in NEP), enrolment cannot exceed the eligible pool exiting Class XII.

Historically, India’s higher-education GER grew from ~24% in 2014–15 to 28.4% in 2024–25 — an addition of ~4.4 percentage points in a decade, or ~0.44 pp per year. The NEP now demands more than three times that pace (1.5 pp/year) while simultaneously repairing a leaky school pipeline. Success therefore hinges on:

  1. Near-universal secondary completion (95% GER, dropout <3%).
  2. Drastic improvement in Grade X to XI transition and retention through flexible curricula, vocational exposure from Class VI, and multiple exit–entry points envisaged under NEP’s 5+3+3+4 structure.
  3. Aggressive expansion of open/distance and online learning to absorb non-traditional learners.

Without rapid progress on school retention and transition in the 2025–2030 window, the 50% higher-education GER target by 2035 will remain mathematically unattainable regardless of how many new universities or online programmes are created. The data underscore that the bottleneck is pre-higher-education; fixing it is the non-negotiable precondition for NEP’s flagship higher-education ambition.

Table 1: National Efficiency Targets versus Current Reality
Indicator Current (2024–25) Required by 2030 Required by 2035
Secondary GER 78.7% 90% 95%
Higher Secondary GER 58.4% 75% 85%
Transition Rate (Grade X → XI) 75.1% 90% 95%
Dropout Rate (Secondary) 11.5% <5% <3%
Retention Rate (Grade I–XII) 47.2% 70% 80%
Higher Education GER 28.4% 40% 50%

State-Level Performance – Leaders vs Laggards: 2024–25

A stark regional divergence has emerged as the single largest structural obstacle to India’s national goal of 50% higher-education GER by 2035, and Table 2 quantifies the depth of this divide.The three Leader states — Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu — have already crossed or are within striking distance of the national 2035 school-level targets that NEP 2020 treats as prerequisites. Their secondary GER exceeds 90%, transition from Class X to XI is 92–98%, and overall retention from Grade I to XII ranges from 75–85%+. In these states, the higher-education GER is already 42–55% (2023–24 data), and reaching 50% by 2035 will require only modest incremental effort and capacity addition.

In contrast, the two largest Laggard states — Bihar and Uttar Pradesh — together account for roughly 25% of India’s 18–23 age cohort (approximately 35–38 million youth). Here the pipeline is catastrophically broken:

  • Bihar’s secondary GER is only 51.1% and retention from Grade I to XII is 40%; six out of ten children never reach Class X.
  • Uttar Pradesh retains only 45% up to Class XII and has a 72% transition rate from X to XI.
  • Combined, these two states drag the national retention rate (I–XII) down by an estimated 8–10 percentage points and the higher-education GER down by 4–5 percentage points.

Because higher-education enrolment is capped by the number of Class XII passers, these two states create a national structural deficit that no amount of central investment in universities can overcome. Even if every single Class XII graduate from Bihar and UP were enrolled in higher education tomorrow (100% transition), their current output of 12th-pass students would still yield a state-level higher-education GER of only ~30–35% — far below the national 50% target.

In effect, India’s 50% ambition is now hostage to the educational performance of its two most populous northern states. The Leader–Laggard gap has widened rather than narrowed since NEP 2020 was announced, because the Leaders continue to improve at 1–2 percentage points per year while the Laggards stagnate or improve only marginally.

Policy implication: unless Bihar and Uttar Pradesh achieve an unprecedented acceleration in school retention and transition — roughly 3–4 percentage points per year on retention for the next decade (a pace never before sustained by any large Indian state) — the national 50% higher-education GER target by 2035 is mathematically unachievable. The regional divide has transformed what was framed in NEP 2020 as a national challenge into a highly concentrated Bihar–UP rescue mission. Without disproportionate financial, administrative, and political focus on these two states, the flagship 50% goal will inevitably be missed, regardless of progress elsewhere.
Table 2: Leaders vs Laggards – The Regional Divide
State Secondary GER Transition (X–XI) Retention (I–XII) Category
Kerala 95%+ 98% 85%+ LEADERS
Himachal Pradesh 92% 95% 78%
Tamil Nadu 90% 92% 75%
Bihar 51.1% 70% 40% LAGGARDS
Uttar Pradesh 68.2% 72% 45%

Concluding Observations

The struggles of NEP 2020, as unflinchingly chronicled by The CSR Journal (2025), resonate as a profound indictment of reform without resolve: a policy brimming with transformative zeal yet ensnared by the inertia of underprepared institutions and overlooked prerequisites. Faculty, the vanguard of this educational metamorphosis, bear the brunt of curricular contortions and administrative flux, their zeal dimmed by resource scarcities that echo the very school-level dilapidations we have long decried (Mehta, 2025a). Students and families, ensnared in this vortex of delayed commencements and diluted semesters, embody the human cost of aspirational overreach—where the siren call of 50% GER by 2035 rings hollow against a pipeline hemorrhaging talent at every juncture.

With retention from Grades 1–12 stagnating at 47.2% and transitions at 75.1%, the arithmetic is inexorable: a paltry 13 million annual Grade 12 graduates cannot propel higher education toward 70–86 million enrolees without a seismic uplift in school efficiencies. This is no mere correlative caution; it is a causal imperative.

Yet glimmers of feasibility abound. Exemplars like Kerala and Tamil Nadu attest that universal secondary completion is replicable. The clarion path demands:

  • ₹10,000+ crore special intervention package for Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh & West Bengal
  • Mandatory Grade-10 counselling fused with SWAYAM credits
  • 50% escalation in Samagra Shiksha outlays to digitise and retain
  • Replicate Kerala’s public-aided school model and KITE’s open-source EdTech nationwide

At Education for All in India, our conviction endures: the edifice of higher education cannot stand aloof from school’s scaffolding. NEP’s vision of a 50% GER is not predestined to falter but beckons a symbiotic renaissance—school reforms as the bedrock, higher education as the bloom. The demographic dividend, so perilously proximate, must be wrested through deliberate diligence—one retained learner, one seamless transition at a time.

Suggested Readings

  • Mehta, A. C. (2025a). Can India Achieve 50% Gross Enrolment Ratio in Higher Education by 2035? Education for All in India. https://educationforallinindia.com/can-india-achieve-50-gross-enrolment-ratio-in-higher-education-by-2035/
  • The CSR Journal (2025). India’s Biggest ‘Education Reform’ is Struggling. Here’s The Data. https://thecsrjournal.in/indias-biggest-education-reform-is-struggling-heres-the-data/
  • UDISE+ 2024–25 Report. https://udiseplus.gov.in/
  • More Recent Web Publications of Prof. Arun C Mehta

Cite as: Mehta, A. C. (2025). Reviewing NEP 2020’s Implementation Hurdles: The Imperative of School Education Efficiency for India’s Higher Education Aspirations. Education for All in India. https://educationforallinindia.com/the-imperative-of-school-education-efficiency-for-indias-higher/