Introduction

India’s aspiration to become a global knowledge superpower hinges on transforming its higher education system. The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 sets an ambitious target of achieving a 50% Gross Enrollment Ratio (GER) in higher education by 2035, a significant leap from the current 28.4% as reported by the All India Survey on Higher Education (AISHE) 2021-22. GER, which measures the percentage of the 18-23 age group enrolled in higher education, is a key indicator of educational access and equity. However, achieving this goal is challenging, particularly in developing states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and West Bengal, which lag significantly behind high-performing states. Moreover, the efficiency of school education, particularly the transition from higher secondary to college, is a critical bottleneck, as only higher secondary graduates are eligible for degree programs. This article examines the NEP 2020 target against current realities, with a focus on developing states, the proposed Higher Education Commission of India (HECI), and strategies to bridge the gap, drawing insights from Education for All in India.

Is 50% GER at Higher Education Level In India 2035 Achievable?

NEP 2020’s Vision and Current GER Status

The NEP 2020 envisions doubling the GER from 26.3% in 2018 to 50% by 2035, requiring an annual growth rate of approximately 4.7%. According to the AISHE 2021-22, the national GER has reached 28.4%, up from 27.3% in 2020-21 and 23.7% in 2014-15, with 43.3 million students enrolled. While this reflects progress, the pace—averaging 1.5-2% annually—is insufficient. Developing states, which account for a significant share of India’s youth population, are critical to this goal, but their low GERs drag down the national average. The proposed Higher Education Commission of India (HECI), as discussed on Education for All in India, aims to streamline regulation and foster innovation to support this target [1].

GER in Developing States and Gender Disparities

The AISHE 2021-22 reveals stark regional disparities, particularly in developing states. Below is a table summarizing GER for all categories, males, and females in key developing and top-performing states for 2021-22:

State/UT	Total GER	Male GER	Female GER
Chandigarh	64.8%	58.1%	72.3%
Puducherry	61.5%	59.8%	63.2%
Tamil Nadu	47.0%	46.2%	47.8%
Kerala	41.3%	38.9%	43.8%
Rajasthan	28.7%	29.8%	27.6%
Madhya Pradesh	28.1%	29.5%	26.6%
West Bengal	24.2%	24.0%	24.4%
Uttar Pradesh	24.1%	25.0%	23.2%
Jharkhand	18.6%	19.2%	18.0%
Bihar	16.0%	17.5%	14.5%
All India	28.4%	28.3%	28.5%

Source: AISHE 2021-22

Nationally, female GER (28.5%) slightly surpasses male GER (28.3%), with a Gender Parity Index of 1.01. However, in developing states like Bihar (14.5%) and Uttar Pradesh (23.2%), female GER lags, particularly for Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) groups (e.g., Bihar: SC 16.4%, ST 13.1%). These states, with large populations, significantly influence the national GER, making their improvement critical to achieving the 50% target.

Trends in GER (2014-15 to 2021-22)

The chart below illustrates the national GER trend in higher education from 2014-15 to 2021-22:

The chart shows a steady but slow increase in GER, from 23.7% in 2014-15 to 28.4% in 2021-22. Developing states like Bihar (16.0%) and Jharkhand (18.6%) show minimal progress, underscoring the need for accelerated efforts.

Critical Role of School Education Efficiency

The efficiency of school education is a fundamental barrier to achieving the 50% GER target. Only higher secondary graduates are eligible for degree courses, making the school-to-college pipeline critical. According to Education for All in India, the transition rate from elementary to secondary education is 88.81%, dropping to 78.41% for higher secondary, with a secondary-level dropout rate of 14.1% [2]. In developing states:

• Bihar: Secondary GER is 45.6%, dropping to 30.0% at higher secondary.
• Jharkhand: Secondary GER is 762.2%, falling to 41.3% at higher secondary.
• Uttar Pradesh: Secondary GER is 63.8%, with 53.2% at higher secondary.
• Madhya Pradesh: Secondary GER is 67.0%, but higher secondary is 43.9%.
• Rajasthan: Secondary GER is 80.2%, dropping to 62.0% at higher secondary.
• West Bengal: Secondary GER is 101.3%, with 66.1% at higher secondary.

These low transition and high dropout rates shrink the pool of eligible candidates, particularly in low-GER states, making universal higher education enrollment unattainable without addressing school-level inefficiencies.

Role of the Proposed Higher Education Commission of India (HECI)

The proposed HECI, as outlined on Education for All in India, aims to replace the University Grants Commission (UGC), All India Council for Technical Education (AICTE), and National Council for Teacher Education (NCTE) with a unified regulatory body [1]. Announced by Union Minister Sukanta Majumdar in July 2025, the HECI will operate under a “light but tight” framework, promoting transparency, autonomy, and innovation [3]. By streamlining regulation, the HECI could address disparities in developing states by setting uniform standards, enhancing accreditation, and fostering infrastructure development, critical for improving GER [1].

Key Barriers in Developing States

• Affordability: High costs deter enrollment in rural Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh, where poverty is rampant.
• Regional Disparities: Low college density (e.g., Bihar: 7 colleges per lakh population vs. Karnataka’s 66) limits access.
• Poor School-to-College Transition: High dropout rates and low higher secondary GERs restrict eligible candidates.
• Infrastructure and Faculty Shortages: Developing states face shortages of universities and qualified faculty.
• Data Gaps: Reliance on 2011 census projections hinders accurate GER planning.

Review of Progress and Strategies

Progress in developing states is slow—Bihar’s GER rose from 15.9% to 16.0%, Uttar Pradesh from 21.8% to 24.1% between 2020-21 and 2021-22. Initiatives like Rashtriya Uchchatar Shiksha Abhiyan (RUSA) and Vidyashakti Scheme aim to boost enrollment, but impact remains limited. Analysis from Education for All in India projects a GER of only 38-40% by 2035 without aggressive reforms [2]. Strategies include:

• Strengthening school education to reduce dropouts and improve higher secondary transitions.
• Expanding higher education infrastructure in low-GER states.
• Enhancing affordability through scholarships and online education.
• Implementing HECI to standardize quality and access.
• Leveraging technology for scalable education delivery.

Concluding Observations

Achieving a 50% GER by 2035 is a bold goal, but developing states like Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and West Bengal hold the key. Their low GERs – ranging from 16.0% to 28.7% – and inefficient school systems, with high dropout rates and low higher secondary transitions, are major hurdles. The proposed HECI offers hope by streamlining regulation and fostering innovation, but its success depends on addressing regional disparities and school-level inefficiencies. Insights from Education for All in India underscore that without improving the school-to-college pipeline, the NEP 2020 target remains elusive [2]. India must invest in education at all levels, prioritize affordability, and leverage reforms like HECI to create an inclusive, equitable higher education system by 2035.

Suggested Readings

1. Higher Education Commission of India (HECI) Bill: A Transformative Step for Indian Higher Education, Education for All in India, July 22, 2025.
2. Education for All in India, Various Articles on UDISE+ and AISHE Data Analysis.
3. AISHE 2021-22, Ministry of Education, Government of India.

Education for All India