Decline in School Enrolment UDISEPlus 2023-24

Analysis of School Enrolment Growth by Management in India during 2020-21 to 2023-24

The data on enrolment growth by management from 2020-21 to 2023-24 offers critical insights into the distribution of student enrolment across different school managements: Government, Private Aided, Private Unaided, and Others. This analysis focuses explicitly on enrolment under Government and Private Unaided management, highlighting the trends and shifts in these two categories over the past few years.

The Recent UDISEPlus Data

This article is exclusively based on UDISEPlus data; readers should refer to the original reports at https://udiseplus.gov.in. The UDISE 2022-23 and UDISE 2023-24 data were released on 30th December 2024. The reports caution that while UDISE 2022-23 and UDISE 2023-24 are comparable, the new data collection methodology (SDMIS) introduced in 2022-23 makes it incompatible with UDISEPlus 2021-22 and earlier data. However, upon reviewing the UDISEPlus 2022-23 report, it is noted that efficiency indicators, such as dropout, transition, and retention rates, have been computed. These calculations depend on the data from UDISEPlus 2021-22, making both data sets necessary for such analysis. Experts argue that despite the differences in data collection methodology, the indicators, rates, and ratios remain comparable because they reflect the situation at a specific point in time, regardless of the data collection methodology used.

By just changing the method of data collection, how the drastic decline in total enrolment (Grades I to XII) from 255.74 million in 2021-22 to 241.62 million in 2022-23 and further to 234.96 million in 2023-24 is justified? The  2023-24 data is short of 2.08 crores (-8.12 percent) students compared to the enrolment levels of 2021-22. While the decline presents immediate challenges for universal education goals, the improved data accuracy provides a more reliable foundation for future planning and interventions.

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The significant enrollment decline in 2022-23 appears to be primarily attributed to improved data collection methodologies initiated through the SDMIS. Implementing multiple parameters for student verification has likely eliminated Duplicate enrolments, Ghost students, Inflated enrollment figures, and Outdated or incorrect records. The new data collection system suggests that previous enrollment figures may have been overestimated by approximately 5-6%, which indicates a more realistic picture of actual school enrollment.

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Therefore, the fundamental question arises: Why has there been a decline of 6.7 million in enrollment (primary to higher secondary) within just one year, which happened even after the implementation of SDMIS in its second year, i.e., 2023-24? Is this decline due to:

  • Are fake or duplicate enrolments being purged?
  • Students, who were previously only registered in school records but were not physically attending school? or
  • Is enrollment now more realistic than it was in the past years? Or is the decline in enrolment because of the smaller number of schools covered under UDISEPlus, from 14,89,115 schools in 2021-22 to 14,66,109 schools in the following year, i.e., 2022-23?

This unexplained decline makes it exceedingly difficult to assess the current state of school education in India. The inconsistency in the time-series enrollment data appears unrealistic and raises critical concerns for data users and planners. The UDISEPlus portal is silent on the steep decline in enrollment, nor is there an explanation from the Department of School Education & Literacy, Ministry of Education for the declining number of schools covered under UDISEPlus or whether the decline is due to merging or closing down of schools.

With the above background, let us now assess the trends in enrolment during 2020-21 to 2023-24, total enrolment as well as by the management.

Government Management: Decline in Enrolment

The enrolment in Government-managed schools has shown a consistent decline over the four years from 2020-21 to 2023-24. In 2020-21, the total enrolment was 132,435,168, which grew to 140,503,898 in 2021-22, marking an increase of approximately 6 percent. However, starting in 2022-23, the enrolment decreased significantly, reaching 136,204,917, reflecting a drop of about 4.3 million students compared to the previous year. By 2023-24, the enrolment further declined to 124,256,425, showing a loss of 11.95 million students relative to 2022-23. This overall decline of 16.25 million students between 2021-22 and 2023-24 represents an 11.56 percent decrease in enrolment under Government schools, which is considered huge both in the absolute and percentage form.

The decline in Government school enrolment raises critical concerns. While there was an initial growth in 2021-22, the subsequent years reveal a noticeable contraction, which may be attributed to several factors. Is the decline due to student data collection as a part of the annual data collection under UDISEPlus starting the year 2022-23? These could also include the increased preference for private education, especially in urban areas, or migration of students to higher classes in private schools due to perceived better quality of education, infrastructure, and facilities. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the shift to online learning may have also disrupted Government school enrollment, as students from economically disadvantaged backgrounds may have faced difficulties accessing digital education, thus contributing to the decline. The NSSO and UDISEPlus data suggest that digital infrastructure, including internet connectivity, is adequate in neither the households nor the schools.

Growth of Enrolment by Management: 2020-21 to 2023-24

Management 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Change

over

2021-22

 2023-24 Change

 over

2022-23

 Change

over

2021-22

 % Change over 2021-22
Government 132435168 140503898 136204917 -4298981 124256425 -11948492 -16247473 -11.56
% Share 52.18 54.94 54.09   52.88      
Private Aided 26446425 26648173 26233480 -414693 25200960 -1032520 -1447213 -5.43
% Share 10.42 10.42 10.42   10.73      
Private Unaided 88095528 82450777 84162385 1711608 80883167 -3279218 -1567610 -1.90
% Share 34.71 32.24 33.43   34.42      
Others 6852720 6137775 5190940 -946835 4622479 -568461 -1515296 -24.69
% Share 2.7 2.4 2.06   1.97      
Total  Enrolment: Grades I to XII 253804461 255740623 241623910 -3948901 234963031 -16828691 -20777592 -8.12
Change over the previous year 1936162 -14116713 -6660879 -6660879

Source: UDISEPlus, different years.

Private Unaided Schools: Fluctuations in Enrolment

The enrolment in recognized Private Unaided schools also demonstrates notable fluctuations during the period under review. In 2020-21, the enrolment was 88,095,528, which dropped to 82,450,777 in 2021-22, representing a 6.4 percent decline. This decline was reversed in 2022-23, with enrolment rising to 84,162,385, an increase of 1.7 million students from the previous year. However, this growth was short-lived, as enrolment in 2023-24 decreased to 80,883,167, reflecting a loss of 3.28 million students compared to 2022-23. The overall change from 2021-22 to 2023-24 shows a decline of 1.9 percent, indicating a relatively volatile enrolment pattern in the private unaided sector.

The declining enrolment trend in Private Unaided schools after 2022-23 could be linked to several factors, including economic constraints families face, which might have led to a preference for more affordable education options such as Government or private aided schools. Additionally, the continuing impact of the economic fallout from the pandemic could have constrained household incomes, pushing students away from private, unaided institutions toward more affordable alternatives, such as Government schools. The significant reduction in enrolment in 2023-24 suggests that many students may have shifted to Government schools or enrolled in more affordable private-aided schools due to financial limitations.

Overall Trends and Shifts in Enrolment Patterns

The data reveals a steady decline across all sectors when examining the total enrolment in Grades I to XII. The overall enrolment in 2020-21 was 253,804,461; by 2023-24, this had decreased to 234,963,031, a loss of over 18.8 million students. This 8.12 percent drop in total enrolment from 2021-22 to 2023-24 reflects the broader trends in Government and Private Unaided schools. The Government schools’ share of total enrolment has decreased from 54.94 percent in 2021-22 to 52.88 percent in 2023-24, while the share of Private Unaided schools has remained relatively stable but slightly reduced, from 32.24 percent in 2021-22 to 34.42 percent in 2023-24.

The overall decline in enrolment across both Government and Private Unaided sectors may reflect more profound issues, such as demographic shifts (declining birth rates), migration patterns, and the continued impact of economic challenges. Though relatively stable, the rise in Private Aided enrolment in specific years suggests that families may move toward more affordable private institutions instead of unaided private schools or public institutions.

Concluding Observations

The analysis of enrolment trends by management from 2020-21 to 2023-24 indicates a concerning shift in India’s education landscape, particularly in the context of Government and Private Unaided schools. The decline in Government school enrolment by over 16 million students suggests that despite efforts to improve public education, systemic issues impede retention and access, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. Similarly, the fluctuating enrolment in Private Unaided schools, particularly the sharp decline in 2023-24, indicates that private education, once seen as a symbol of quality, may no longer be as accessible or attractive to families due to financial pressures.

The data also highlights the Socio-Economic disparities that influence educational choices. As families increasingly seek more affordable options, Private Aided schools seem to benefit from this shift, while the Government and Private Unaided sectors face enrolment losses. The situation calls for targeted policy interventions to improve the quality of Government schools and make private education more accessible to a broader range of students. These trends should be a key area of focus for policymakers aiming to ensure equitable and inclusive education in India.

The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 envisions achieving universal school education by 2030, focusing on providing equal access to quality education to students, irrespective of their socio-economic background, geographic location, or disabilities. The policy sets ambitious goals, including universalizing early childhood education, ensuring that all children are enrolled in school, improving the quality of learning, and reducing dropout rates. However, the current enrolment trends, as seen in the decline of enrolment in Government and Private Unaided schools, suggest that the road to this goal remains challenging. The NEP (2020) also emphasizes the significance of a flexible, robust, and inclusive education system that offers equitable access and aligns with the diverse needs of India’s population. While the vision outlined in the NEP is commendable, the existing enrolment disparities and the decline in Government school enrolment indicate that substantial reforms are necessary to address the underlying barriers, such as financial constraints, infrastructure deficits, and socio-cultural factors, that prevent students from accessing and staying in school. For India to meet the 2030 target, more significant investments in public education, a strengthened public-private partnership, and enhanced efforts to tackle the economic and social challenges facing marginalized groups will be essential. Thus, while the NEP provides a roadmap for achieving universal school education, the recent enrolment data highlights a need for targeted interventions to ensure all children complete their education.

Need for Constituting an Expert Committee to Investigate the Steep Decline in Enrolment

The reported decline in enrolment of 20.8 million students in Grades I to XII between 2021-22 and 2023-24, as indicated by the UDISEPlus data, raises significant concerns regarding the accuracy and reliability of the enrolment data. While the Ministry of Education (MoE) has attributed this drop to implementing new data collection methods, such as the Student Data Management Information System (SDMIS) introduced during the 2022-23 cycle, the scale of the decline suggests that other factors may also be at play. The possibility of over-reporting, incorrect reporting, or the presence of duplicate and fake enrolment records cannot be ruled out. Given that the decline in enrollment is disproportionately large and not fully explained by changes in data collection processes alone, it is crucial to establish an Expert Committee to conduct a comprehensive investigation. This committee should examine the underlying reasons for the steep drop in enrolment, mainly focusing on the accuracy of the data reporting mechanisms under the UDISEPlus.

The Ministry should initiate an independent audit of the entire data collection process under UDISEPlus, covering the period from 2018-19 onwards. This audit should examine all aspects of UDISEPlus, including the procedures for data collection, sharing, digitization, data sharing policy, data uploading, dissemination through publications and online portals, and data utilization in formulating annual plans.

Additionally, it should evaluate the effectiveness of incentive programs and direct benefit schemes provided to students in the previous years, especially since enrolment figures were much higher in 2021-22 compared to subsequent years. Understanding how these financial and support measures were utilized and whether they aligned with actual student enrolment is essential to determine whether they played a role in the apparent discrepancy. Such a study would clarify whether enrolment discrepancies are due to systemic reporting failures or if broader socio-economic factors and inefficiencies in policy implementation contribute to the decline.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) on Enrolment Trends in India, 2020-21 to 2023-24 UDISEPlus Data

  1. Why has there been a significant decline in enrolment in Government schools between 2021-22 and 2023-24?

Answer:
The decline in Government school enrolment over the past few years is concerning. While factors like the shift in parental preference towards private education, particularly in urban areas, and socio-economic challenges have contributed, the COVID-19 pandemic and disruptions in education (including digital divides) have further exacerbated the situation. Additionally, there may be systemic issues in retention, access to quality education, and infrastructure gaps in Government schools, all of which need to be addressed to improve enrolment numbers.

  1. What role did private unaided schools play in enrolment trends between 2021-22 and 2023-24?

Answer:
Enrolment in Private Unaided schools has seen significant fluctuations. After a decline in 2021-22, enrolment rose slightly in 2022-23 but fell sharply in 2023-24. The economic pressures households face, particularly after the pandemic, may have led many families to choose more affordable options like Government or private-aided schools instead of private unaided institutions, which may have been perceived as financially inaccessible for many families.

  1. What does the UDISEPlus data suggest about the overall enrolment in grades I to XII in India from 2020-21 to 2023-24?

Answer:
The UDISEPlus data reveals a steady decline in total enrolment across all sectors, with a loss of more than 20 million students between 2021-22 and 2023-24; this represents an 8.12% decrease in overall enrolment, which is concerning. The decline is most pronounced in Government and Private Unaided schools, signaling potential gaps in access and retention that must be urgently addressed.

  1. What are the key reasons for the decline in enrolment in India?

Answer:
The decline in enrolment could be attributed to several factors:

  • Data collection methods: The introduction of new systems, such as the SDMIS in 2022-23, has changed how enrolment is reported, contributing to discrepancies.
  • Economic challenges: Many families, mainly from economically disadvantaged backgrounds, may have faced financial constraints, leading to a preference for more affordable schooling options or the need for students to drop out to contribute to household income.
  • Shift in preferences: A shift in parental preference towards private education due to perceptions of better quality or facilities in private schools despite higher costs.
  • Impact of COVID-19: Educational disruptions caused by the pandemic, especially in rural and economically vulnerable areas, may have led to children dropping out or staying out of the education system.

  1. How does the NEP 2020 aim to address these enrolment challenges?

Answer:
The National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 envisions achieving universal school education by 2030, focusing on improving quality, equity, and inclusion. The policy emphasizes universal access to early childhood education, strengthening Government school infrastructure, and improving learning outcomes. It also seeks to address dropout rates through measures like engagement with out-of-school children, digital learning, and better teacher training. However, achieving these goals will require addressing the challenges of enrolment disparities, quality of education, and socio-economic barriers.

  1. What should be done to address the steep decline in enrolment reported between 2021-22 and 2023-24?

Answer:
Given the magnitude of the decline in enrollment, it is essential to establish an expert committee to investigate the reasons behind this reduction, particularly in government and private unaided schools. The committee should:

  • Examine the accuracy of data reporting methods, particularly following the adoption of the SDMIS system in 2022-23.
  • Investigate the potential for over-reporting, duplicate enrolments, or fake data in previous years.
  • Analyze the effectiveness and utilization of incentive programs and direct benefit schemes aimed at students, mainly if enrolment was significantly lower than previously reported.

A thorough investigation will help identify whether the decline is due to reporting errors or if there are deeper issues, such as socio-economic factors, affecting enrolment.

  1. How can India achieve the target of universal education by 2030, as outlined in the NEP 2020?

Answer:
To achieve universal education by 2030, India must prioritize several key actions:

  • Improve Government school infrastructure: Ensuring better facilities, quality teaching, and learning outcomes will encourage more students to stay enrolled in Government schools.
  • Focus on inclusive education: Implement targeted policies to include marginalized groups, such as children from economically disadvantaged backgrounds, rural areas, and those with disabilities.
  • Strengthen financial support schemes: Ensure that incentive programs, scholarships, and direct benefit schemes effectively reach students who need them.
  • Invest in digital learning: Given the impact of the digital divide, expanding online education and access to digital resources can support learning, particularly in remote areas.
  • Monitoring and accountability: Accurate data collection and regular monitoring of enrolment figures are essential to understand enrolment trends and take corrective actions where needed.

  1. What are the following steps to ensure that the enrolment figures reflect the number of students in India?

Answer:
To ensure that the enrolment figures accurately reflect the actual number of students in India, the expert committee should investigate the following:

  • Review the impact of new data collection methods like SDMIS on enrolment reporting and identify areas for improvement.
  • Audits of school enrolment records are conducted to identify any discrepancies or irregularities in data reporting, such as duplicate or fake enrolments.
  • Assess the effectiveness of policy interventions, including financial schemes, to understand why enrolment in Government and Private Unaided schools has declined despite the availability of such schemes.

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